Track record
Every week from 29 Mar 2025 to 3 Oct 2026: the read made on the Saturday before, and what each share then did against Nifty over the ten sessions after its result. 70 of these 73 Saturdays are simulated — the engine was run on 13 Sep 2026 standing on each one in turn, with prices to the Friday close and only the results that had already happened. Nobody could have acted on those reads on the day; they show what the method would have said, not what it did say.
The two indices, in full
every read scored by weights fitted only on the seasons before it · updated each Saturday| Model in force | Hypothesis weights | Every read | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Information coefficient (mean over unseen mornings) | +0.086 | +0.013 | — |
| t-statistic · mornings | 4.5 · 28 | 0.6 · 28 | — |
| Top fifth: mean excess per read · beat Nifty | -0.75% · 42% | -1.14% · 40% | -1.55% · 37% |
| Bottom fifth: mean excess per read | -1.93% | -1.85% | — |
| Long-short spread per read | +1.18% | +0.71% | — |
| Cumulative long-short, summed week by week | +28.7 pts | +20.0 pts | — |
| Cumulative long-short after costs (20 bp a position, assumed) | +17.7 pts | +9.0 pts | — |
| Cumulative long only | -18.1 pts | -14.6 pts | — |
| IC by season | 25Q3 +0.118 · 25Q4 +0.047 · 26Q1 +0.102 · 26Q2 +0.043 · 26Q3 +0.156 | 25Q3 +0.008 · 25Q4 +0.108 · 26Q1 -0.050 · 26Q2 +0.014 · 26Q3 -0.006 | — |
Did the calls carry information?
ten sessions after the result, against Nifty 50A favourable read (strong or favourable) says the name has tended to rise after its results; an unfavourable one (unfavourable or weak) that it has tended to fall. It is a hit when the ten-session move against Nifty went that way. The line to beat is the one beside each figure: what every name the engine read did, whatever its label. If the two hit rates sit on that line and the spread is near zero, the label carries no information — and that is what this page is for finding out. Neutral reads make no call and are not scored. For reference, of every result in the period including the ones never read (12,476), 38% rose against Nifty.
How the simulation stands
Knows on each Saturday: prices, volumes and index levels to the Friday close; every past result and its reaction that had already played out.
Overstates slightly: result dates come from the confirmed calendar as it stands today. A few of the week's dates would not yet have been intimated to the exchange by that Saturday. The surveillance list (ASM/GSM) is today's.
History floor: simulated weeks read a name with 8 or more clean quarters; the live rule is sixteen. Every read shows how many quarters it rested on.
Same code: the simulated read and the post-mortem that judges it are the live jobs, called with a past date. Nothing was tuned on this period.
Week by week
newest first · click a Saturday to stand on it| Result week | Read on | Reporting | Read | Judged | Favourable ↑ | Unfavourable ↓ | Spread | Biggest mover | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–10 Oct 2026 | Sat 3 Oct 2026 | live | 17 | 5 | 0 +5 open | — | — | — | — |
| 28 Sep – 3 Oct 2026 | Sat 26 Sep 2026 | live | 8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 21–26 Sep 2026 | Sat 19 Sep 2026 | live | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 27 Jul – 1 Aug 2026 | Sat 25 Jul 2026 | simulated | 367 | 233 | 233 | 49% 38/77 | 58% 39/67 | -0.1% | XPROINDIA -21.5% favourable |
| 20–25 Jul 2026 | Sat 18 Jul 2026 | simulated | 255 | 166 | 166 | 49% 27/55 | 62% 34/55 | -0.2% | BANDHANBNK -20.6% favourable |
| 13–18 Jul 2026 | Sat 11 Jul 2026 | simulated | 106 | 69 | 69 | 24% 5/21 | 63% 15/24 | -0.6% | NUVOCO +19.2% weak |
| 6–11 Jul 2026 | Sat 4 Jul 2026 | simulated | 15 | 9 | 9 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | -1.8% | TCS +6.4% weak |
| 29 Jun – 4 Jul 2026 | Sat 27 Jun 2026 | simulated | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 22–27 Jun 2026 | Sat 20 Jun 2026 | simulated | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 15–20 Jun 2026 | Sat 13 Jun 2026 | simulated | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 8–13 Jun 2026 | Sat 6 Jun 2026 | simulated | 1 | 1 | 0 +1 open | — | — | — | — |
| 1–6 Jun 2026 | Sat 30 May 2026 | simulated | 121 | 34 | 34 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | +2.5% | PTCIL +19.7% neutral |
| 25–30 May 2026 | Sat 23 May 2026 | simulated | 844 | 283 | 186 +97 open | 35% 21/60 | 58% 32/55 | -2.4% | TECHNOE -21.9% strong |
| 18–23 May 2026 | Sat 16 May 2026 | simulated | 470 | 225 | 224 +1 open | 52% 39/75 | 63% 43/68 | +3.7% | KDDL +32.4% unfavourable |
| 11–16 May 2026 | Sat 9 May 2026 | simulated | 401 | 212 | 180 +32 open | 32% 17/53 | 62% 32/52 | -0.8% | GLAND +20.5% strong |
| 4–9 May 2026 | Sat 2 May 2026 | simulated | 260 | 162 | 162 | 42% 20/48 | 60% 30/50 | -0.7% | SHOPERSTOP +21.2% weak |
| 27 Apr – 2 May 2026 | Sat 25 Apr 2026 | simulated | 190 | 132 | 132 | 55% 23/42 | 61% 23/38 | +2.5% | VEDL -61.9% neutral |
| 20–25 Apr 2026 | Sat 18 Apr 2026 | simulated | 97 | 69 | 69 | 52% 13/25 | 48% 11/23 | +1.4% | TANLA +15.2% strong |
| 13–18 Apr 2026 | Sat 11 Apr 2026 | simulated | 37 | 23 | 23 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | +1.4% | VSTIND +9.3% neutral |
| 6–11 Apr 2026 | Sat 4 Apr 2026 | simulated | 6 | 4 | 4 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | +8.2% | TCS -4.5% weak |
| 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2026 | Sat 28 Mar 2026 | simulated | 0 | Nothing due — between reporting seasons | |||||
| 23–28 Mar 2026 | Sat 21 Mar 2026 | simulated | 0 | Nothing due — between reporting seasons | |||||
| 16–21 Mar 2026 | Sat 14 Mar 2026 | simulated | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 9–14 Mar 2026 | Sat 7 Mar 2026 | simulated | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 2–7 Mar 2026 | Sat 28 Feb 2026 | simulated | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 23–28 Feb 2026 | Sat 21 Feb 2026 | simulated | 8 | 5 | 5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | -2.7% | KSB +7.4% unfavourable |
| 16–21 Feb 2026 | Sat 14 Feb 2026 | simulated | 132 | 34 | 34 | 23% 3/13 | 79% 11/14 | -4.9% | EASEMYTRIP +43.7% weak |
| 9–14 Feb 2026 | Sat 7 Feb 2026 | simulated | 1056 | 367 | 367 | 42% 50/119 | 73% 88/120 | +2.3% | EASEMYTRIP +43.7% weak |
| 2–7 Feb 2026 | Sat 31 Jan 2026 | simulated | 571 | 298 | 297 +1 open | 36% 33/91 | 53% 47/88 | -1.1% | GRWRHITECH +29.7% neutral |
| 26–31 Jan 2026 | Sat 24 Jan 2026 | simulated | 372 | 229 | 228 +1 open | 45% 33/73 | 46% 31/67 | -2.8% | SERVOTECH +42.6% unfavourable |
| 19–24 Jan 2026 | Sat 17 Jan 2026 | simulated | 199 | 123 | 123 | 41% 15/37 | 50% 18/36 | -1.6% | HOMEFIRST +19.4% unfavourable |
| 12–17 Jan 2026 | Sat 10 Jan 2026 | simulated | 109 | 62 | 40 +22 open | 35% 6/17 | 86% 6/7 | +0.5% | JINDALSAW +20.8% neutral |
| 5–10 Jan 2026 | Sat 3 Jan 2026 | simulated | 15 | 8 | 8 | 0% 0/3 | 100% 1/1 | +0.1% | ELECON -18.6% neutral |
| 29 Dec – 3 Jan 2026 | Sat 27 Dec 2025 | simulated | 3 | 2 | 1 +1 open | 0% 0/1 | — | — | SWARAJENG -1.1% strong |
| 22–27 Dec 2025 | Sat 20 Dec 2025 | simulated | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 15–20 Dec 2025 | Sat 13 Dec 2025 | simulated | 5 | 2 | 2 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | +2.7% | ORISSAMINE +3.4% strong |
| 8–13 Dec 2025 | Sat 6 Dec 2025 | simulated | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 1–6 Dec 2025 | Sat 29 Nov 2025 | simulated | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 24–29 Nov 2025 | Sat 22 Nov 2025 | simulated | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | PARSVNATH -2.8% neutral |
| 17–22 Nov 2025 | Sat 15 Nov 2025 | simulated | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 10–15 Nov 2025 | Sat 8 Nov 2025 | simulated | 1197 | 445 | 445 | 22% 31/139 | 86% 137/159 | +1.4% | AHLUCONT +19.3% unfavourable |
| 3–8 Nov 2025 | Sat 1 Nov 2025 | simulated | 514 | 295 | 295 | 20% 20/102 | 89% 89/100 | -0.4% | LUMAXTECH +19.1% favourable |
| 27 Oct – 1 Nov 2025 | Sat 25 Oct 2025 | simulated | 271 | 177 | 176 +1 open | 38% 21/56 | 76% 39/51 | +1.7% | LGBBROSLTD +28.0% unfavourable |
| 20–25 Oct 2025 | Sat 18 Oct 2025 | simulated | 63 | 36 | 36 | 62% 8/13 | 69% 9/13 | +4.6% | PFS +8.9% weak |
| 13–18 Oct 2025 | Sat 11 Oct 2025 | simulated | 186 | 126 | 126 | 55% 23/42 | 61% 22/36 | +3.5% | DCBBANK +22.5% favourable |
| 6–11 Oct 2025 | Sat 4 Oct 2025 | simulated | 19 | 6 | 6 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | +15.9% | EIMCOELECO -6.0% weak |
| 29 Sep – 4 Oct 2025 | Sat 27 Sep 2025 | simulated | 0 | Nothing due — between reporting seasons | |||||
| 22–27 Sep 2025 | Sat 20 Sep 2025 | simulated | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0% 0/1 | — | -14.2% | SUDARSCHEM -5.5% strong |
| 15–20 Sep 2025 | Sat 13 Sep 2025 | simulated | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 8–13 Sep 2025 | Sat 6 Sep 2025 | simulated | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 1–6 Sep 2025 | Sat 30 Aug 2025 | simulated | 6 | 2 | 2 | — | 100% 1/1 | +13.6% | PARSVNATH +2.3% weak |
| 25–30 Aug 2025 | Sat 23 Aug 2025 | simulated | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 18–23 Aug 2025 | Sat 16 Aug 2025 | simulated | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 11–16 Aug 2025 | Sat 9 Aug 2025 | simulated | 789 | 286 | 286 | 39% 37/96 | 58% 51/88 | +0.0% | SPIC +24.0% favourable |
| 4–9 Aug 2025 | Sat 2 Aug 2025 | simulated | 593 | 292 | 292 | 34% 33/98 | 74% 59/80 | +1.0% | YATRA +43.2% strong |
| 28 Jul – 2 Aug 2025 | Sat 26 Jul 2025 | simulated | 393 | 246 | 246 | 36% 29/81 | 77% 58/75 | +0.7% | SARDAEN +23.0% unfavourable |
| 21–26 Jul 2025 | Sat 19 Jul 2025 | simulated | 241 | 157 | 157 | 19% 10/53 | 88% 45/51 | +1.5% | POCL +15.8% strong |
| 14–19 Jul 2025 | Sat 12 Jul 2025 | simulated | 96 | 64 | 64 | 26% 6/23 | 70% 16/23 | -3.8% | VIMTALABS +12.7% unfavourable |
| 7–12 Jul 2025 | Sat 5 Jul 2025 | simulated | 18 | 6 | 6 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | +9.0% | ARIHANTCAP -4.9% favourable |
| 30 Jun – 5 Jul 2025 | Sat 28 Jun 2025 | simulated | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | MICEL -3.0% neutral |
| 23–28 Jun 2025 | Sat 21 Jun 2025 | simulated | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 16–21 Jun 2025 | Sat 14 Jun 2025 | simulated | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 9–14 Jun 2025 | Sat 7 Jun 2025 | simulated | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | ORISSAMINE -0.4% neutral |
| 2–7 Jun 2025 | Sat 31 May 2025 | simulated | 0 | Nothing due — between reporting seasons | |||||
| 26–31 May 2025 | Sat 24 May 2025 | simulated | 775 | 273 | 273 | 41% 35/85 | 46% 42/91 | -2.0% | LUMAXTECH +29.0% strong |
| 19–24 May 2025 | Sat 17 May 2025 | simulated | 439 | 210 | 210 | 59% 38/64 | 33% 23/69 | -0.2% | HONDAPOWER +31.9% strong |
| 12–17 May 2025 | Sat 10 May 2025 | simulated | 384 | 215 | 215 | 54% 36/67 | 20% 13/65 | -1.1% | RAYMOND -65.0% unfavourable |
| 5–10 May 2025 | Sat 3 May 2025 | simulated | 229 | 148 | 148 | 67% 30/45 | 14% 7/49 | -4.7% | CCL +30.4% unfavourable |
| 28 Apr – 3 May 2025 | Sat 26 Apr 2025 | simulated | 168 | 112 | 112 | 47% 17/36 | 39% 15/38 | -2.8% | KSOLVES -19.0% strong |
| 21–26 Apr 2025 | Sat 19 Apr 2025 | simulated | 122 | 94 | 94 | 26% 8/31 | 62% 21/34 | -2.0% | RAJRATAN +34.7% unfavourable |
| 14–19 Apr 2025 | Sat 12 Apr 2025 | simulated | 34 | 18 | 18 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 4/6 | -2.1% | TATAELXSI +11.8% weak |
| 7–12 Apr 2025 | Sat 5 Apr 2025 | simulated | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0% 0/1 | — | -10.8% | ANANDRATHI +0.3% strong |
| 31 Mar – 5 Apr 2025 | Sat 29 Mar 2025 | simulated | 0 | Nothing due — between reporting seasons | |||||
The v1 record · five heroes a week, August–September 2026
What the earlier version of the screen published, kept exactly as published. Everything here is a hit rate on observed movement, not a return: the screen surfaced names likely to be volatile around their results and made no claim about direction.
Moved as much as expected
75.0%
8 names scored · bar set at 65.0%
Accumulation signature followed
50.0%
6 observed · bar set at 58.0%
Distribution signature followed
—
0 observed
Sector call correct
50.0%
4 scored
Biggest mover captured
0.0%
of 9 weeks reviewed
Weeks published
3
0 results postponed, excluded from scoring
What each number means
- Moved as much as expected
- The share of surfaced names that moved at least 60% of their own historical average move on results. This is the screen’s central claim, and the only one it is really making: that these names tend to be eventful around results.
- Accumulation signature followed
- Where Layer 3 observed a name decoupling upward from the index before its result, how often the reaction was upward. Reported as a base rate for comparison, not as a forecast — the signature is an observation about the past 90 sessions, and the screen states plainly that it may be wrong.
- Biggest mover captured
- How often the largest actual reaction of the week was among the names surfaced. This is the harshest number on the page and it is published on purpose. When it is low, the screen missed the story.
What this page will never show
No returns, no portfolio, no entry or exit levels, no price goals. This is a screen with a published record of how well it screens. What anyone does with that is entirely their own decision.
FY2026-27 · week by week
The fiscal year runs from 1 April, so week 1 begins Monday 6 Apr 2026. All 52 weeks are shown from the outset — a week that was never published stays visibly missing rather than disappearing from the record.
3 of 52 weeks published so far this fiscal year. A figure computed from a handful of weeks is noise; these become meaningful across a full season, which is exactly why every empty slot is on show.
Weeks reviewed
| Week | Reached their bar | Biggest mover | Captured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15 Aug 2026 | 3 of 5 | HLEGLAS | no |
| 3–8 Aug 2026 | 3 of 5 | ATHERENERG | no |
How often a name crossed +5%
Of every name published, the share that traded 5% above its pre-result close at some point in the seven sessions after the result. This asks whether a name got there, which is a different question from the Gain rate below — that one asks whether it was still there on the seventh session. A stock that ran to +9% on day two and gave it all back is a yes here and a no there, and both readings are true.
Crossed +5%
60.0%
6 of 10 names measured
Median best point
+6.5%
the middle name’s high, against its pre-result close
Still open
12
result not in, or window still running
Measured on the session high, because “crossed” is about what the stock traded at rather than where it settled. Reaching a level at some point in a week is not the same as a return, and nothing here says it could have been realised.
Dates that moved after the pick
Names are picked before most companies have told the exchange when they will report, so a card is often frozen against a projected date. When the company then confirms a different one, the pick stands, the card is not edited, and the result is scored on the day it actually lands. Every such move is listed here.
| Week | Name | Picked against | Confirmed as | Moved | Date at pick time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12–17 Oct 2026 | DMART Avenue Supermarts Ltd. |
15 Oct | 10 Oct | -5 d | Projected |
| 12–17 Oct 2026 | ANANDRATHI Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd. |
13 Oct | 9 Oct | -4 d | Projected |
| 12–17 Oct 2026 | WIPRO Wipro Ltd. |
14 Oct | 15 Oct | +1 d | Projected |