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Market regimes

What kind of market each NIFTY 50 session was: rising, sideways or falling, and calm or volatile. Each session is labelled from data up to its own close, so the labels can be used on backtests without looking ahead. Backtests, sweeps, walk-forward tests and paper accounts split their results by these labels.

Falling

As of the close of 6 Oct 2026: the index is below its 200-session average and its 50-session average is sliding. This regime began on 16 Sep 2026, 14 sessions ago.

22,776NIFTY 50 close6 Oct 2026
-6.4%from its 200-session averageaverage 24,324
11.6%volatility, 20 sessionsannualised · higher than 54% of the past three years

The last five years

NIFTY 50 over its regimes · rising sideways falling · hatched: volatile
Rising: 6 Oct – 9 Dec Sideways: 10 Dec – 14 Feb Sideways, volatile: 15 Feb – 21 Feb Sideways: 22 Feb – 23 Feb Falling, volatile: 24 Feb – 16 Mar Sideways, volatile: 17 Mar – 25 Mar Sideways: 28 Mar – 18 Apr Falling: 19 Apr – 20 Apr Sideways: 21 Apr – 21 Apr Falling: 22 Apr – 27 Apr Sideways: 28 Apr – 28 Apr Falling: 29 Apr – 19 May Falling, volatile: 20 May – 24 May Falling: 25 May – 27 May Falling, volatile: 30 May – 31 May Falling: 1 Jun – 10 Jun Falling, volatile: 13 Jun – 13 Jun Falling: 14 Jun – 28 Jul Sideways: 29 Jul – 1 Aug Rising: 2 Aug – 27 Sep Sideways: 28 Sep – 29 Sep Rising: 30 Sep – 30 Sep Sideways: 3 Oct – 3 Oct Rising: 4 Oct – 25 Jan Sideways: 27 Jan – 27 Feb Falling: 28 Feb – 28 Feb Sideways: 1 Mar – 1 Mar Falling: 2 Mar – 2 Mar Sideways: 3 Mar – 9 Mar Falling: 10 Mar – 3 Apr Sideways: 5 Apr – 9 May Rising: 10 May – 2 Jun Sideways: 4 Jun – 4 Jun Rising, volatile: 5 Jun – 3 Jul Rising: 4 Jul – 20 Oct Sideways: 23 Oct – 3 Nov Falling, volatile: 4 Nov – 4 Nov Sideways, volatile: 6 Nov – 4 Dec Rising, volatile: 5 Dec – 5 Dec Rising: 6 Dec – 3 Jun Rising, volatile: 4 Jun – 2 Jul Rising: 3 Jul – 6 Nov Sideways: 7 Nov – 13 Nov Falling: 14 Nov – 21 Nov Sideways: 22 Nov – 19 Dec Falling: 20 Dec – 1 Jan Sideways: 2 Jan – 3 Jan Falling: 6 Jan – 4 Apr Falling, volatile: 7 Apr – 17 Apr Sideways, volatile: 21 Apr – 21 Apr Rising, volatile: 22 Apr – 24 Apr Sideways, volatile: 25 Apr – 25 Apr Rising, volatile: 28 Apr – 8 May Sideways: 9 May – 9 May Rising, volatile: 12 May – 6 Jun Rising: 9 Jun – 14 Aug Sideways: 18 Aug – 15 Oct Rising: 16 Oct – 22 Jan Sideways: 23 Jan – 23 Jan Rising: 27 Jan – 27 Jan Sideways: 28 Jan – 30 Jan Falling: 2 Feb – 2 Feb Sideways: 3 Feb – 26 Feb Falling, volatile: 27 Feb – 2 Mar Falling: 4 Mar – 6 Mar Falling, volatile: 9 Mar – 7 May Falling: 8 May – 15 Jun Sideways: 16 Jun – 17 Jul Falling: 20 Jul – 24 Jul Sideways: 27 Jul – 15 Sep Falling: 16 Sep – 6 Oct 6 Oct 2021 6 Oct 2026

How the index did in each

every session on file since 19 Oct 2020, 1471 in all
RegimeSessionsShare of the timeIndex, annualised
Rising796 54.1%+19.3%
Rising, volatile73 5.0%+70.6%
Sideways295 20.1%+3.4%
Sideways, volatile32 2.2%+344.0%
Falling205 13.9%-23.8%
Falling, volatile69 4.7%-22.4%

Spells

each run of the same regime, newest first
RegimeFromToSessionsIndex over the spell
Falling16 Sep 20266 Oct 2026 14-1.5%
Sideways27 Jul 202615 Sep 2026 36-2.7%
Falling20 Jul 202624 Jul 2026 5-2.3%
Sideways16 Jun 202617 Jul 2026 23+2.0%
Falling8 May 202615 Jun 2026 26-1.9%
Falling, volatile9 Mar 20267 May 2026 39-0.5%
Falling4 Mar 20266 Mar 2026 3-1.7%
Falling, volatile27 Feb 20262 Mar 2026 2-2.5%
Sideways3 Feb 202626 Feb 2026 18+1.6%
Falling2 Feb 20262 Feb 2026 1-0.9%
Sideways28 Jan 202630 Jan 2026 3+0.6%
Rising27 Jan 202627 Jan 2026 1+0.5%
Sideways23 Jan 202623 Jan 2026 1-1.0%
Rising16 Oct 202522 Jan 2026 67-0.1%
Sideways18 Aug 202515 Oct 2025 41+2.8%
Rising9 Jun 202514 Aug 2025 49-1.5%
Rising, volatile12 May 20256 Jun 2025 20+4.1%
Sideways9 May 20259 May 2025 1-1.1%
Rising, volatile28 Apr 20258 May 2025 8+1.0%
Sideways, volatile25 Apr 202525 Apr 2025 1-0.9%
Rising, volatile22 Apr 202524 Apr 2025 3+0.5%
Sideways, volatile21 Apr 202521 Apr 2025 1+1.1%
Falling, volatile7 Apr 202517 Apr 2025 7+4.1%
Falling6 Jan 20254 Apr 2025 62-4.6%
Sideways2 Jan 20253 Jan 2025 2+1.1%
Falling20 Dec 20241 Jan 2025 8-0.9%
Sideways22 Nov 202419 Dec 2024 20+2.6%
Falling14 Nov 202421 Nov 2024 4-0.9%
Sideways7 Nov 202413 Nov 2024 5-3.8%
Rising3 Jul 20246 Nov 2024 88+1.5%
Rising, volatile4 Jun 20242 Jul 2024 20+3.7%
Rising6 Dec 20233 Jun 2024 119+11.6%
Rising, volatile5 Dec 20235 Dec 2023 1+0.8%
Sideways, volatile6 Nov 20234 Dec 2023 19+16.7%
Falling, volatile4 Nov 20234 Nov 2023 1-7.8%
Sideways23 Oct 20233 Nov 2023 9-1.6%
Rising4 Jul 202320 Oct 2023 76+1.1%
Rising, volatile5 Jun 20233 Jul 2023 20+9.8%
Sideways4 Jun 20234 Jun 2023 1-5.0%
Rising10 May 20232 Jun 2023 18+1.5%

How a session is labelled

Rising
The close is above its 200-session average, and the 50-session average is higher than it was 20 sessions before.
Falling
The close is below its 200-session average, and the 50-session average is lower than 20 sessions before.
Sideways
Anything else: the two signals point different ways.
Volatile
The last 20 sessions' daily moves, annualised, are at or above the 80th percentile of the same measure over the previous three years.
No look-ahead
Every label uses closes up to and including its own session only; adding later data never changes an earlier label. Method trend200-50x20.vol20r756p80.v1.

A description of past index behaviour, not a forecast of what comes next.