No lean over the next hour: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 49% of the time (67 of 138 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 8 of 15 times on this name; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name; Hammer (live, up): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 97 of 179 times across 62 names; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 316 of 627 times across 76 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 2,084.23 to 2,118.29 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 2,102.10, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.85% (the 20th percentile) to +0.77% (the 80th); median -0.05%, typical size either way 0.70%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.71%, the best +2.38%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.16% per candle, R² 0.83

Slope -0.16% per candle (down), R² 0.83 (straight), 16 candles from the window's high, -2.34% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -1.91% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 57% of the time (24 of 42 windows). The evidence in progress: Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 210 of 438 times across 108 names; Hammer (live, up): went its way 172 of 371 times across 94 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 109 of 213 times across 81 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 24 of 50 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 2,083.39 to 2,124.38 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 2,102.10, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.89% (the 20th percentile) to +1.06% (the 80th); median +0.22%, typical size either way 0.84%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.30%, the best +1.98%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.11% per candle, R² 0.58

Slope -0.11% per candle (down), R² 0.58 (choppy), 15 candles from the window's high, -2.49% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.90% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 75% of the time (6 of 8 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 145 of 269 times across 53 names; Hammer (live, up): went its way 35 of 68 times across 32 names; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 41 of 96 times across 31 names; Opening range breakout (recent, down): went its way 95 of 176 times across 50 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 2,090.54 to 2,136.99 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 2,102.10, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -0.55% (the 20th percentile) to +1.66% (the 80th); median +1.05%, typical size either way 1.48%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.99%, the best +2.27%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 50% of the time (125 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (live, up): went its way 119 of 229 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 19 of 43 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, up): went its way 11 of 17 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 59 of 126 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 2,047.88 to 2,134.83 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 2,090.10, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -2.02% (the 20th percentile) to +2.14% (the 80th); median -0.01%, typical size either way 1.75%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -8.14%, the best +15.13%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.94% per candle, R² 0.81

Slope +0.94% per candle (up), R² 0.81 (straight), 19 candles from the window's low, +15.24% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print +0.94% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 56% of the time (140 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (live, up): went its way 117 of 226 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 22 of 42 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, up): went its way 6 of 16 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 68 of 125 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 2,014.23 to 2,276.75 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 2,090.10, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.63% (the 20th percentile) to +8.93% (the 80th); median +0.92%, typical size either way 4.06%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -21.36%, the best +25.14%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.94% per candle, R² 0.81

Slope +0.94% per candle (up), R² 0.81 (straight), 19 candles from the window's low, +15.24% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print +4.71% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 60% of the time (150 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (live, up): went its way 129 of 224 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 21 of 42 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, up): went its way 7 of 16 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 67 of 122 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 1,974.94 to 2,376.44 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 2,090.10, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -5.51% (the 20th percentile) to +13.70% (the 80th); median +2.59%, typical size either way 7.53%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -18.18%, the best +39.41%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.94% per candle, R² 0.81

Slope +0.94% per candle (up), R² 0.81 (straight), 19 candles from the window's low, +15.24% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print +9.42% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.