The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 37% · evidence 1 pattern (24 obs)
- Last close
- ₹677.30 as of Wed 30 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹673.37 – ₹679.74 -0.58% · +0.36%
- Typical move
- -0.20% median of 513 windows
- Trend line
- -0.069%/candle · R² 0.67 carried forward -0.83%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 37% of the time (191 of 513 windows). The evidence in progress: Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 30 of 71 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 24 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.
The range: 673.37 to 679.74 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 677.30, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.58% (the 20th percentile) to +0.36% (the 80th); median -0.20%, typical size either way 0.40%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.07%, the best +2.79%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.07% per candle, R² 0.67
Slope -0.07% per candle (down), R² 0.67 (choppy), 13 candles from the window's high, -1.31% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.83% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.