Outlook · IDFC First Bank Ltd.

What the candles in progress say about the coming hours and days, counted from what followed the same candles before. For any name: the chance the close is higher over each horizon, the range four in five earlier windows ended inside, the evidence behind it, and how often earlier outlooks leaned the right way. A chance, never a certainty — and the record of the misses sits beside it.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. · IDFCFIRSTB

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The coming hours

The next hour

5-minute candles · 12 ahead

· No lean chance the close is higher
base rate 47% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹85.80 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
Range, 20th–80th: ₹85.51 – ₹86.04 -0.34% · +0.28%
Typical move: -0.02% median of 62 windows
Trend line: -0.039%/candle · R² 0.70 carried forward -0.47%
Record: 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide

in progress Inside bar, then a breakout · up · library record 1669 hits in progress Volume spike · neutral · too few hits to count just hit Moving-average cross · down · library record 1032 hits building Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) · down · library record 72 hits

How this was counted, in words

No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 47% of the time (29 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 721 of 1669 times across 201 names; Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 85.51 to 86.04 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 85.80, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.34% (the 20th percentile) to +0.28% (the 80th); median -0.02%, typical size either way 0.24%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.74%, the best +1.00%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.04% per candle, R² 0.70

Slope -0.04% per candle (down), R² 0.70 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's high, -0.48% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.47% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 65 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

The next two hours

15-minute candles · 8 ahead

· No lean chance the close is higher
base rate 65% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹85.80 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:15 IST
Range, 20th–80th: ₹85.72 – ₹86.21 -0.09% · +0.48%
Typical move: +0.15% median of 17 windows
Trend line: +0.012%/candle · R² 0.07 carried forward +0.10%
Record: 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide

in progress VWAP cross · up · library record 978 hits in progress Marubozu · up · library record 423 hits in progress Volume spike · up · library record 425 hits building Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) · down · library record 51 hits

How this was counted, in words

No lean over the next two hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 65% of the time (11 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 408 of 978 times across 183 names; Marubozu (live, up): went its way 180 of 423 times across 106 names; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 160 of 425 times across 59 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 25 of 51 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 85.72 to 86.21 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 85.80, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.09% (the 20th percentile) to +0.48% (the 80th); median +0.15%, typical size either way 0.36%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.49%, the best +0.64%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.07

Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.07 (choppy), 9 candles from the window's low, +0.55% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.10% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 60 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

The next six trading hours

hourly candles · 6 ahead

· No lean chance the close is higher
base rate 100% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹85.80 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:15 IST
Range, 20th–80th: ₹85.87 – ₹85.87 +0.08% · +0.08%
Typical move: +0.08% median of 1 windows
Record: 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide

in progress VWAP cross · up · library record 295 hits in progress Marubozu · up · library record 73 hits just hit Opening range breakout · down · library record 183 hits

How this was counted, in words

No lean over the next six trading hours: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 119 of 295 times across 59 names; Marubozu (live, up): went its way 29 of 73 times across 36 names; Opening range breakout (recent, down): went its way 99 of 183 times across 52 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 85.87 to 85.87 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 85.80, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.08% (the 20th percentile) to +0.08% (the 80th); median +0.08%, typical size either way 0.08%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.08%, the best +0.08%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

The coming days

The next session

daily candles · 1 ahead

▼ Leaning down chance the close is higher
base rate 51% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹81.56 as of 6 Oct 2026
Range, 20th–80th: ₹80.73 – ₹82.64 -1.02% · +1.33%
Typical move: +0.05% median of 250 windows
Trend line: -0.400%/candle · R² 0.63 carried forward -0.40%
Record: 6 judged — printed at 20

just hit Move of X% within M candles · up · own record 97 hits just hit Inside bar, then a breakout · up · own record 22 hits just hit Bullish engulfing · up · own record 16 hits building Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) · down · library record 7319 hits

How this was counted, in words

Leaning down over the next session: 57% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 51% of the time (128 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 35 of 97 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 9 of 22 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 6 of 16 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3659 of 7319 times across 2290 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.

The range: 80.73 to 82.64 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 81.56, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.02% (the 20th percentile) to +1.33% (the 80th); median +0.05%, typical size either way 0.93%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -16.13%, the best +7.65%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 1 session typically reached +1.71% in the hit's favour and -2.15% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.40% per candle, R² 0.63

Slope -0.40% per candle (down), R² 0.63 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's high, -7.21% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.40% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

The next five sessions

daily candles · 5 ahead

· No lean chance the close is higher
base rate 57% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹81.56 as of 6 Oct 2026
Range, 20th–80th: ₹80.02 – ₹84.03 -1.89% · +3.03%
Typical move: +0.50% median of 250 windows
Trend line: -0.400%/candle · R² 0.63 carried forward -2.00%
Record: 4 judged — printed at 20

just hit Move of X% within M candles · up · own record 96 hits just hit Inside bar, then a breakout · up · own record 21 hits just hit Bullish engulfing · up · own record 15 hits building Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) · down · library record 7216 hits

How this was counted, in words

No lean over the next five sessions: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 57% of the time (143 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 46 of 96 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 7 of 21 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 4 of 15 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3657 of 7216 times across 2279 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 80.02 to 84.03 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 81.56, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -1.89% (the 20th percentile) to +3.03% (the 80th); median +0.50%, typical size either way 1.89%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.01%, the best +11.93%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.40% per candle, R² 0.63

Slope -0.40% per candle (down), R² 0.63 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's high, -7.21% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -2.00% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

The next ten sessions

daily candles · 10 ahead

· No lean chance the close is higher
base rate 61% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)

Last close: ₹81.56 as of 6 Oct 2026
Range, 20th–80th: ₹79.19 – ₹85.69 -2.91% · +5.06%
Typical move: +1.20% median of 250 windows
Trend line: -0.400%/candle · R² 0.63 carried forward -4.00%
Record: 2 judged — printed at 20

just hit Move of X% within M candles · up · own record 93 hits just hit Inside bar, then a breakout · up · own record 21 hits just hit Bullish engulfing · up · own record 15 hits building Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) · down · library record 7180 hits

How this was counted, in words

No lean over the next ten sessions: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 61% of the time (152 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 41 of 93 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 9 of 21 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 6 of 15 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3755 of 7180 times across 2274 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 79.19 to 85.69 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 81.56, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -2.91% (the 20th percentile) to +5.06% (the 80th); median +1.20%, typical size either way 3.15%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -20.06%, the best +15.24%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.40% per candle, R² 0.63

Slope -0.40% per candle (down), R² 0.63 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's high, -7.21% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -4.00% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

How the outlook is counted

1. The base rate

Over this name's own stored candles (the last 250 sessions for the daily cards; every five-minute candle on file for the hourly ones), how often the close the chosen number of candles later was higher, and where the moves fell — the 20th, 50th and 80th percentiles. With nothing in progress this is the outlook: the name's own habit, nothing added.

2. The evidence

Every pattern in the library that is in progress, just hit, or building on the latest candle, with what followed its earlier hits on this same name — the share of times the close went the hit's way. When the name itself has fewer than five earlier hits, the library's pooled record across every name it has been seen on stands in, and the card says so. A pattern with no usable record is listed but counts for nothing.

3. Putting them together

The chance is the base rate pulled toward the evidence in proportion to how much evidence there is: the base rate counts as twenty observations; each pattern counts as its number of earlier hits, at most sixty, scaled by whether it is live (1.0), just hit (0.7) or still building (0.4); and all the evidence together counts as at most eighty, because two patterns saying "up" on the same candles are not two independent witnesses. No evidence returns the base rate; strong evidence moves the chance toward its record but can never reach 0 or 100. The lean is called only past 55% (up) or below 45% (down); in between the card says no lean.

4. The range and the trend line

The two references are the 20th and 80th percentiles of the name's own moves over that horizon, applied to the last close — where four in five earlier windows ended. The trend line is the least-squares fit on the latest candles (slope per candle, R² for straightness) carried forward as arithmetic; the text says whether lines that straight have tended to continue.

5. The record

Every outlook is stored when it is made and judged once the horizon has traded: did the close go the way it leaned, and did it end inside the range. The card shows the last hundred at that candle size and horizon — for the name when it has twenty judged, else site-wide — and every outlook issued is counted, none dropped. The number is printed whether it is 40% or 70%.