Week by week · NATNLSTEEL
The last ninety sessions read a week at a time: each week's open, high, low and close, how much it gained or lost, the slope and angle the weeks make, which patterns in the library the weekly candles match, and what the next four weeks look like by the arithmetic of this name's own record. A reading of the past, never a forecast.
NATNLSTEEL · NATNLSTEEL
Daily candles, the weeks behind them, and the next four weeks
adjusted for splits and bonuses · hover any week, candle or point for its numbersThe reading
22 weeks: -5.95% from the first open to the last close, an average +0.32% a week
13 weeks closed above the week before, 9 below. The median week moved +1.48%, and a typical week's move either side of the average was 9.24%. The best week was +18.60% (week of 2023-01-23), the worst -17.05% (week of 2023-02-27). The second half of the window ran +1.13% a week against -0.50% in the first: the move has been picking up.
The slope: closes falling 0.39% a week, angle -21°, R² 0.03
A straight line through the weekly closes (on a log scale) falls 0.39% a week. On the page's fixed scale, where 1% a week is 45°, that is -21°. R² 0.03 says how closely the weeks hug the line: well below 1, so the weeks wander a long way from it and the slope says less. The line through the weekly highs runs -0.23% a week (-13°), the one through the lows -0.34% (-19°).
The shape: falling channel
Highs and lows both sliding at about the same pace: a steady downtrend. Week on week, 7 of 21 weeks made a higher high and 10 of 21 a higher low. The gap between the two lines went from 10.4% to 13.2%.
The patterns on the weekly candles: 10 in play, 10 with a record worth counting
Bullish engulfing (just completed, up): four weeks later it went its way 2654 of 6160 times across 2276 names; Morning star (just completed, up): four weeks later it went its way 1404 of 3545 times across 1916 names; Gap at the open (just completed, down): four weeks later it went its way 55 of 110 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (just completed, down): four weeks later it went its way 17 of 33 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (completed recently, down): four weeks later it went its way 4081 of 7282 times across 2358 names; Shooting star (completed recently, down): four weeks later it went its way 3412 of 6026 times across 2209 names.
Four weeks on, by the arithmetic: middle of the readings 3.90 (-1.25%), 46% chance the close is higher
From the last close of 3.95: if the window's average week carried on it would print 3.93 (-0.44%); if the close line's slope carried on, 3.89 (-1.53%). Four in five of this name's earlier four-week windows ended between 3.28 and 4.74 (-17.06% to +20.03%). The middle figure is the plain average of those three centres. None of these is a level the price is going to; they are what the record prints.
Our arithmetic from stored candles: no recommendation, no forecast of any price. The paths below are what the numbers would print if the past simply carried on, and the range is where this name's own earlier moves ended. The decision, and the risk, are yours.
The next four weeks, by the arithmetic
from the last close of ₹3.95 · not a forecast| Week | If the average week carried on | If the slope carried on | Range, 4 in 5 earlier windows | Middle of the readings | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 week | 3.95 -0.11% | 3.93 -0.39% | 3.75 – 4.12 -4.97% · +4.37% | 3.89 -1.47% | 40% base 38% |
| +2 weeks | 3.94 -0.22% | 3.92 -0.77% | 3.58 – 4.53 -9.47% · +14.77% | 3.89 -1.49% | 45% base 39% |
| +3 weeks | 3.94 -0.33% | 3.90 -1.15% | 3.43 – 4.68 -13.26% · +18.48% | 3.89 -1.49% | 47% base 42% |
| +4 weeks | 3.93 -0.44% | 3.89 -1.53% | 3.28 – 4.74 -17.06% · +20.03% | 3.90 -1.25% | 46% base 47% |
The ranges and the chance are counted from this name's own earlier windows of the same length over the last 104 weeks on file; the chance is pulled toward the record of any weekly pattern in play. The middle figure is the plain average of the three centres: the average-week path, the slope path and the median of the earlier windows.
Patterns on the weekly candles
every pattern in the library, run on 143 weekly candles · open the tester →| Pattern | State | Direction | What it saw | Four weeks after earlier hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish engulfing | just completed · week of 15 May 2023 | up | A down candle (3.70→3.60) followed by an up candle (3.45→3.95) whose body covers it, after -4.05% over the 5 candles before. | went its way 2654 of 6160 across 2276 names |
| Morning star | just completed · week of 15 May 2023 | up | A long down candle (4.30→3.55), a small-bodied candle, then an up candle closing at 3.95, above the first candle's midpoint 3.92. | went its way 1404 of 3545 across 1916 names |
| Gap at the open | just completed · week of 15 May 2023 | down | Opened at 3.45, -4.17% below the previous close of 3.60. | went its way 55 of 110 on this name, median -3.85% |
| Move of X% within M candles | just completed · week of 15 May 2023 | down | -7.79% in the last 3 candles, 3.85 to 3.55. | went its way 17 of 33 on this name, median +2.74% |
| Bearish engulfing | completed recently · week of 01 May 2023 | down | An up candle (4.10→4.20) followed by a down candle (4.30→3.55) whose body covers it, after +23.44% over the 5 candles before. | went its way 4081 of 7282 across 2358 names |
| Shooting star | completed recently · week of 24 Apr 2023 | down | Upper wick 0.30 is 3.0× the body, the lower wick is 0% of the range, after +23.44% over the 5 candles before; high 4.50, close 4.20. | went its way 3412 of 6026 across 2209 names |
| Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) | completed recently · week of 01 May 2023 | up | Five swings up: 1 2.90→3.35, 2 back to 3.05 (above where 1 began), 3 to 4.20, 4 back to 3.65 (above the top of 1), 5 to 4.50; wave 3 is not the shortest. | went its way 649 of 1376 across 972 names |
| Marubozu | completed recently · week of 01 May 2023 | down | Body 0.75 is 94% of the range: opened near the high and closed near the low (4.30→3.55). | went its way 12 of 31 on this name, median +1.11% |
| Higher highs and higher lows | completed recently · week of 01 May 2023 | up | 2 higher highs and higher lows on swings of at least 3%: lows 3.05, 3.65; highs 3.35, 4.20, 4.50. | went its way 1 of 6 on this name, median -16.76% |
| Hammer | completed recently · week of 08 May 2023 | up | Lower wick 0.20 is 2.0× the body, the upper wick is 0% of the range, after -4.05% over the 5 candles before; low 3.40, close 3.60. | went its way 4 of 5 on this name, median +22.67% |
Every week
open = first session's open, close = last session's close, high and low = the week's extremes| Week of | Sessions | Open | High | Low | Close | Open to close | On the week before | High–low range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2023 | 5 | 3.45 | 4.10 | 3.45 | 3.95 | +0.50 +14.49% | +9.72% | 18.84% |
| 8 May 2023 | 5 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.60 | -0.10 -2.70% | +1.41% | 8.82% |
| 1 May 2023 | 4 | 4.30 | 4.35 | 3.55 | 3.55 | -0.75 -17.44% | -15.48% | 22.54% |
| 24 Apr 2023 | 5 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.10 +2.44% | +6.33% | 9.76% |
| 17 Apr 2023 | 5 | 3.85 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 3.95 | +0.10 +2.60% | +2.60% | 15.07% |
| 10 Apr 2023 | 4 | 3.85 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.85 | +0.00 +0.00% | +4.05% | 10.53% |
| 3 Apr 2023 | 3 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.70 | +0.30 +8.82% | +13.85% | 8.82% |
| 27 Mar 2023 | 4 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 3.25 | +0.05 +1.56% | +1.56% | 6.56% |
| 20 Mar 2023 | 5 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 3.20 | -0.05 -1.54% | +3.23% | 13.56% |
| 13 Mar 2023 | 5 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 3.10 | -0.05 -1.59% | +1.64% | 15.52% |
| 6 Mar 2023 | 4 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.05 | 3.05 | -0.45 -12.86% | -16.44% | 19.67% |
| 27 Feb 2023 | 4 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 3.65 | -0.55 -13.10% | -17.05% | 15.07% |
| 20 Feb 2023 | 1 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.00 +0.00% | -4.35% | 0.00% |
| 13 Feb 2023 | 1 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.00 +0.00% | -5.15% | 0.00% |
| 6 Feb 2023 | 1 | 4.85 | 4.85 | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.00 +0.00% | -4.90% | 0.00% |
| 23 Jan 2023 | 4 | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.30 | 5.10 | +0.60 +13.33% | +18.60% | 18.60% |
| 16 Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.75 | 4.30 | 3.60 | 4.30 | +0.55 +14.67% | +14.67% | 19.44% |
| 9 Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.75 | +0.05 +1.35% | +1.35% | 11.76% |
| 2 Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.65 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.70 | +0.05 +1.37% | +4.23% | 14.71% |
| 26 Dec 2022 | 5 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.35 | 3.55 | -0.10 -2.74% | -2.74% | 11.94% |
| 19 Dec 2022 | 5 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.55 | 3.65 | -0.25 -6.41% | -3.95% | 9.86% |
| 12 Dec 2022 | 5 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.80 | -0.40 -9.52% | -6.17% | 13.51% |
Our arithmetic from stored candles: no recommendation, no forecast of any price. The paths below are what the numbers would print if the past simply carried on, and the range is where this name's own earlier moves ended. The decision, and the risk, are yours.
How week by week is counted
1. The weeks
The last ninety sessions (the window the stock page draws), adjusted for splits and bonuses, grouped by calendar week. A week's open is its first session's open, its close the last session's close, its high and low the extremes of its sessions. The first week can be cut short when the window starts mid-week; it is marked, and its change on the week before is left out of the averages.
2. The growth
Each week's change from open to close, and from the week before's close to its own. The averages are over whole weeks: the mean and median weekly change, the spread either side of the mean, the up and down weeks, the best and the worst, and whether the second half of the window moved faster or slower than the first.
3. The slope and the angle
A least-squares straight line through the weekly closes, and one each through the weekly highs and lows, fitted on a log scale so a slope reads as a steady percentage a week. The angle puts that slope on a fixed scale where 1% a week is 45°, so two names can be compared; the angle a chart happens to draw depends only on how the axes are stretched. R² (0 to 1) says how closely the weeks hug the close line. The two outer lines name the shape: a rising or falling channel, a wedge, a widening or narrowing range, a triangle.
4. The patterns
Every pattern in the library run on this name's weekly candles (about two years on file). Those that completed on the latest week, completed recently, or are building are listed with what followed their earlier hits four weeks on: on this name when it has five or more, else across every name the library has seen them on.
5. The next four weeks
Three readings for each week ahead, all from the last close: the window's average week compounded; the close line's slope carried on; and the 20th to 80th percentile of this name's own earlier moves over that many weeks (the last 104 weeks), with its median. The middle of the readings is the plain average of the three centres. The chance the close is higher is the same base rate and pattern evidence the outlook uses. These are what the record prints if the past simply carried on; nothing here is a forecast, and the ranges show how far it has strayed before.