Week by week · MELSTAR
The last ninety sessions read a week at a time: each week's open, high, low and close, how much it gained or lost, the slope and angle the weeks make, which patterns in the library the weekly candles match, and what the next four weeks look like by the arithmetic of this name's own record. A reading of the past, never a forecast.
MELSTAR · MELSTAR
Daily candles, the weeks behind them, and the next four weeks
adjusted for splits and bonuses · hover any week, candle or point for its numbersThe reading
31 weeks: -32.00% from the first open to the last close, an average -1.11% a week
7 weeks closed above the week before, 19 below. The median week moved -2.00%, and a typical week's move either side of the average was 5.39%. The best week was +15.96% (week of 2024-04-01), the worst -9.52% (week of 2024-03-11). The second half of the window ran -0.05% a week against -2.18% in the first: the move has been picking up.
The slope: closes falling 0.86% a week, angle -41°, R² 0.64
A straight line through the weekly closes (on a log scale) falls 0.86% a week. On the page's fixed scale, where 1% a week is 45°, that is -41°. R² 0.64 says how closely the weeks hug the line: close to 1 is a clean, steady trend. The line through the weekly highs runs -0.95% a week (-44°), the one through the lows -0.83% (-40°).
The shape: falling channel
Highs and lows both sliding at about the same pace: a steady downtrend. Week on week, 8 of 30 weeks made a higher high and 6 of 30 a higher low. The gap between the two lines went from 9.2% to 5.5%.
The patterns on the weekly candles: 5 in play, 4 with a record worth counting
Move of X% within M candles (just completed, down): four weeks later it went its way 14 of 29 times on this name; Gap at the open (completed recently, up): four weeks later it went its way 47 of 89 times on this name; Marubozu (completed recently, down): four weeks later it went its way 21 of 35 times on this name; Doji (completed recently, neutral): four weeks later the close was higher 5 of 15 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): four weeks later it went its way 1236 of 2458 times across 1509 names.
Four weeks on, by the arithmetic: middle of the readings 4.10 (-3.44%), 48% chance the close is higher
From the last close of 4.25: if the window's average week carried on it would print 4.04 (-4.91%); if the close line's slope carried on, 4.11 (-3.38%). Four in five of this name's earlier four-week windows ended between 3.75 and 4.88 (-11.80% to +14.73%). The middle figure is the plain average of those three centres. None of these is a level the price is going to; they are what the record prints.
Our arithmetic from stored candles: no recommendation, no forecast of any price. The paths below are what the numbers would print if the past simply carried on, and the range is where this name's own earlier moves ended. The decision, and the risk, are yours.
The next four weeks, by the arithmetic
from the last close of ₹4.25 · not a forecast| Week | If the average week carried on | If the slope carried on | Range, 4 in 5 earlier windows | Middle of the readings | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 week | 4.20 -1.25% | 4.21 -0.86% | 4.06 – 4.47 -4.56% · +5.22% | 4.21 -1.03% | 44% base 39% |
| +2 weeks | 4.14 -2.48% | 4.18 -1.71% | 3.92 – 4.64 -7.82% · +9.18% | 4.18 -1.65% | 43% base 42% |
| +3 weeks | 4.09 -3.70% | 4.14 -2.55% | 3.79 – 4.83 -10.83% · +13.54% | 4.16 -2.20% | 44% base 42% |
| +4 weeks | 4.04 -4.91% | 4.11 -3.38% | 3.75 – 4.88 -11.80% · +14.73% | 4.10 -3.44% | 49% base 45% |
The ranges and the chance are counted from this name's own earlier windows of the same length over the last 104 weeks on file; the chance is pulled toward the record of any weekly pattern in play. The middle figure is the plain average of the three centres: the average-week path, the slope path and the median of the earlier windows.
Patterns on the weekly candles
every pattern in the library, run on 138 weekly candles · open the tester →| Pattern | State | Direction | What it saw | Four weeks after earlier hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move of X% within M candles | just completed · week of 02 Sep 2024 | down | -9.54% in the last 3 candles, 4.61 to 4.17. | went its way 14 of 29 on this name, median -4.55% |
| Gap at the open | completed recently · week of 26 Aug 2024 | up | Opened at 4.58, +4.81% above the previous close of 4.37. | went its way 47 of 89 on this name, median -4.55% |
| Marubozu | completed recently · week of 26 Aug 2024 | down | Body 0.41 is 95% of the range: opened near the high and closed near the low (4.58→4.17). | went its way 21 of 35 on this name, median -4.55% |
| Doji | completed recently · week of 19 Aug 2024 | neutral | Body 0.00 is 0% of the 0.22 range: open 4.37, close 4.37, high 4.37, low 4.15. | close higher 5 of 15 on this name |
| Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) | building | down | Counting down: waves 1–2 confirmed, wave 3 under way (the current swing has not yet reversed by 4%). Pivots so far 4.84, 4.15, 4.58, 3.96. | went its way 1236 of 2458 across 1509 names |
Every week
open = first session's open, close = last session's close, high and low = the week's extremes| Week of | Sessions | Open | High | Low | Close | Open to close | On the week before | High–low range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2024 | 1 | 4.15 | 4.37 | 3.96 | 4.25 | +0.10 +2.41% | +1.92% | 10.35% |
| 26 Aug 2024 | 1 | 4.58 | 4.58 | 4.15 | 4.17 | -0.41 -8.95% | -4.58% | 10.36% |
| 19 Aug 2024 | 1 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 4.15 | 4.37 | +0.00 +0.00% | +0.00% | 5.30% |
| 12 Aug 2024 | 1 | 4.61 | 4.84 | 4.37 | 4.37 | -0.24 -5.21% | -5.21% | 10.76% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | 1 | 4.20 | 4.62 | 4.20 | 4.61 | +0.41 +9.76% | +4.77% | 10.00% |
| 29 Jul 2024 | 1 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.40 | 4.40 | -0.22 -4.76% | +0.00% | 5.00% |
| 22 Jul 2024 | 1 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.00 +0.00% | -2.22% | 0.00% |
| 15 Jul 2024 | 1 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 +0.00% | -4.26% | 0.00% |
| 8 Jul 2024 | 1 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.05 -1.05% | -1.05% | 3.26% |
| 1 Jul 2024 | 1 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.25 -5.00% | -5.00% | 5.26% |
| 17 Jun 2024 | 1 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | 1 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 May 2024 | 1 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 +0.00% | -0.99% | 0.00% |
| 20 May 2024 | 4 | 5.00 | 5.45 | 4.75 | 5.05 | +0.05 +1.00% | +1.00% | 14.74% |
| 13 May 2024 | 5 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 4.35 | 5.00 | +0.60 +13.64% | +14.94% | 14.94% |
| 6 May 2024 | 4 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.10 -2.25% | -2.25% | 2.30% |
| 29 Apr 2024 | 3 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.45 | 4.45 | -0.15 -3.26% | -3.26% | 3.37% |
| 22 Apr 2024 | 5 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.30 -6.12% | -6.12% | 7.69% |
| 15 Apr 2024 | 4 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.20 -3.92% | -5.77% | 4.08% |
| 8 Apr 2024 | 3 | 5.60 | 5.70 | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.40 -7.14% | -4.59% | 9.62% |
| 1 Apr 2024 | 5 | 4.65 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 5.45 | +0.80 +17.20% | +15.96% | 22.22% |
| 25 Mar 2024 | 3 | 4.65 | 4.90 | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.05 +1.08% | +1.08% | 5.38% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | 5 | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.45 | 4.65 | -0.05 -1.06% | -2.11% | 12.36% |
| 11 Mar 2024 | 5 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.60 | 4.75 | -0.75 -13.64% | -9.52% | 19.57% |
| 4 Mar 2024 | 4 | 5.30 | 5.75 | 4.80 | 5.25 | -0.05 -0.94% | -0.94% | 19.79% |
| 26 Feb 2024 | 5 | 5.45 | 5.75 | 5.05 | 5.30 | -0.15 -2.75% | +1.92% | 13.86% |
| 19 Feb 2024 | 5 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.00 | 5.20 | -0.10 -1.89% | -1.89% | 6.00% |
| 12 Feb 2024 | 5 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.10 | 5.30 | -0.10 -1.85% | -3.64% | 5.88% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | 5 | 5.90 | 5.90 | 5.50 | 5.50 | -0.40 -6.78% | -8.33% | 7.27% |
| 29 Jan 2024 | 5 | 6.20 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 6.00 | -0.20 -3.23% | -3.23% | 3.33% |
| 22 Jan 2024 · window starts mid-week | 2 | 6.25 | 6.30 | 6.20 | 6.20 | -0.05 -0.80% | — | 1.61% |
Our arithmetic from stored candles: no recommendation, no forecast of any price. The paths below are what the numbers would print if the past simply carried on, and the range is where this name's own earlier moves ended. The decision, and the risk, are yours.
How week by week is counted
1. The weeks
The last ninety sessions (the window the stock page draws), adjusted for splits and bonuses, grouped by calendar week. A week's open is its first session's open, its close the last session's close, its high and low the extremes of its sessions. The first week can be cut short when the window starts mid-week; it is marked, and its change on the week before is left out of the averages.
2. The growth
Each week's change from open to close, and from the week before's close to its own. The averages are over whole weeks: the mean and median weekly change, the spread either side of the mean, the up and down weeks, the best and the worst, and whether the second half of the window moved faster or slower than the first.
3. The slope and the angle
A least-squares straight line through the weekly closes, and one each through the weekly highs and lows, fitted on a log scale so a slope reads as a steady percentage a week. The angle puts that slope on a fixed scale where 1% a week is 45°, so two names can be compared; the angle a chart happens to draw depends only on how the axes are stretched. R² (0 to 1) says how closely the weeks hug the close line. The two outer lines name the shape: a rising or falling channel, a wedge, a widening or narrowing range, a triangle.
4. The patterns
Every pattern in the library run on this name's weekly candles (about two years on file). Those that completed on the latest week, completed recently, or are building are listed with what followed their earlier hits four weeks on: on this name when it has five or more, else across every name the library has seen them on.
5. The next four weeks
Three readings for each week ahead, all from the last close: the window's average week compounded; the close line's slope carried on; and the 20th to 80th percentile of this name's own earlier moves over that many weeks (the last 104 weeks), with its median. The middle of the readings is the plain average of the three centres. The chance the close is higher is the same base rate and pattern evidence the outlook uses. These are what the record prints if the past simply carried on; nothing here is a forecast, and the ranges show how far it has strayed before.