The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 43% · evidence 2 patterns (66 obs)
- Last close
- ₹159.60 as of Wed 7 Oct, 15:55 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹158.93 – ₹160.00 -0.42% · +0.25%
- Typical move
- -0.06% median of 881 windows
- Trend line
- -0.007%/candle · R² 0.18 carried forward -0.08%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 43% of the time (377 of 881 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 36 of 67 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 66 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.
The range: 158.93 to 160.00 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 159.60, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.42% (the 20th percentile) to +0.25% (the 80th); median -0.06%, typical size either way 0.26%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.86%, the best +3.09%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.18
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.18 (choppy), 13 candles from the window's high, -0.06% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.08% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.