The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 46% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹723.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹720.47 – ₹724.95 -0.35% · +0.27%
- Typical move
- -0.03% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.001%/candle · R² 0.00 carried forward +0.01%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 46% of the time (29 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (live, down): went its way 1 of 8 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 620 of 1400 times across 206 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.
The range: 720.47 to 724.95 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 723.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.35% (the 20th percentile) to +0.27% (the 80th); median -0.03%, typical size either way 0.22%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.31%, the best +0.56%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.00% per candle, R² 0.00
Slope +0.00% per candle (up), R² 0.00 (choppy), 10 candles from the window's low, +0.00% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.01% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.