The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 48% · evidence 5 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹2,282.20 as of Tue 6 Oct, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹2,259.83 – ₹2,304.57 -0.98% · +0.98%
- Typical move
- -0.04% median of 1,359 windows
- Trend line
- +0.001%/candle · R² 0.00 carried forward +0.01%
- Record
- 42 of 83 leaned right (51%) on this name
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 48% of the time (653 of 1359 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (live, down): went its way 61 of 127 times on this name; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (live, down): went its way 10 of 24 times on this name; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 41 of 98 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 6 of 16 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 4 of 12 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.
The range: 2,259.83 to 2,304.57 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 2,282.20, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.98% (the 20th percentile) to +0.98% (the 80th); median -0.04%, typical size either way 0.77%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.22%, the best +6.58%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.00% per candle, R² 0.00
Slope +0.00% per candle (up), R² 0.00 (choppy), 0 candles from the window's low, +0.00% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.01% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 83 leaned the right way (51%)
Of the last 83 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon on this name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 51 of 83 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.