The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 32% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹8,016.50 as of Mon 5 Oct, 15:50 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹7,949.96 – ₹8,045.36 -0.83% · +0.36%
- Typical move
- -0.31% median of 346 windows
- Trend line
- -0.040%/candle · R² 0.77 carried forward -0.48%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 32% of the time (111 of 346 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 55 of 105 times on this name; Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 19 of 33 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.
The range: 7,949.96 to 8,045.36 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 8,016.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.83% (the 20th percentile) to +0.36% (the 80th); median -0.31%, typical size either way 0.53%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.89%, the best +3.43%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.04% per candle, R² 0.77
Slope -0.04% per candle (down), R² 0.77 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's high, -0.72% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.48% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.