The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 87% · evidence 1 pattern (42 obs)
- Last close
- ₹4,875.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹4,876.46 – ₹4,895.96 +0.03% · +0.43%
- Typical move
- +0.20% median of 61 windows
- Trend line
- +0.021%/candle · R² 0.65 carried forward +0.25%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 87% of the time (53 of 61 windows). The evidence in progress: Break of the session high / low (recent, up): went its way 80 of 212 times across 83 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.
The range: 4,876.46 to 4,895.96 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 4,875.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from +0.03% (the 20th percentile) to +0.43% (the 80th); median +0.20%, typical size either way 0.22%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.25%, the best +0.77%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.65
Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.65 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's low, +0.54% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.25% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.