Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 64% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 168 of 303 times across 56 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 18 of 28 times across 20 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 24 of 57 times across 32 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times across 5 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 36%.

The range: 515.20 to 515.20 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 516.80, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -0.31% (the 20th percentile) to -0.31% (the 80th); median -0.31%, typical size either way 0.31%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.31%, the best -0.31%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.32% in the hit's favour and -1.53% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 48 of 100 leaned the right way (48%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 48 saw the close go the way they leaned; 63 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next five sessions: 55% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 40% of the time (99 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 28 of 52 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 9 of 10 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 64 of 120 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 13 of 18 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3 of 7 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 438.88 to 488.54 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 466.70, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -5.96% (the 20th percentile) to +4.68% (the 80th); median -0.92%, typical size either way 4.56%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.43%, the best +57.62%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 5 sessions typically reached +4.49% in the hit's favour and -3.65% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 1.09% per candle, R² 0.89

Slope -1.09% per candle (down), R² 0.89 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -20.91% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -5.43% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next ten sessions: 57% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 37% of the time (93 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 29 of 52 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 8 of 10 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 56 of 119 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 6 of 18 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3 of 7 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.

The range: 425.63 to 502.12 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 466.70, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -8.80% (the 20th percentile) to +7.59% (the 80th); median -2.76%, typical size either way 6.90%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -31.16%, the best +49.39%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 10 sessions typically reached +6.71% in the hit's favour and -5.91% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 1.09% per candle, R² 0.89

Slope -1.09% per candle (down), R² 0.89 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -20.91% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -10.86% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.