Leaning down over the next hour: 58% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 41% of the time (55 of 134 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (building, up): went its way 63 of 147 times across 65 names. Weighed together as 24 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 42%.

The range: 3,069.60 to 3,097.75 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 3,092.80, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.75% (the 20th percentile) to +0.16% (the 80th); median -0.14%, typical size either way 0.29%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -5.50%, the best +1.27%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.85

Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.85 (straight), 15 candles from the window's low, +1.50% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.84% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next two hours: 59% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 31% of the time (13 of 42 windows). The evidence in progress: Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 229 of 429 times across 61 names; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 176 of 300 times across 96 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 41%.

The range: 3,037.13 to 3,096.20 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 3,092.80, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -1.80% (the 20th percentile) to +0.11% (the 80th); median -0.15%, typical size either way 0.50%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -5.47%, the best +0.74%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.69% in the hit's favour and -0.56% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.08% per candle, R² 0.49

Slope -0.08% per candle (down), R² 0.49 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -1.07% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.65% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 61% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 12% of the time (1 of 8 windows). The evidence in progress: Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 108 of 200 times across 43 names; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 24 of 56 times across 32 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 145 of 269 times across 53 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (recent, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 42 of 98 times across 41 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 39%.

The range: 2,898.26 to 3,012.08 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 3,092.80, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -6.29% (the 20th percentile) to -2.61% (the 80th); median -5.59%, typical size either way 5.59%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.75%, the best +0.54%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.31% in the hit's favour and -1.33% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next session: 55% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 46% of the time (114 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 6 of 10 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 56 of 98 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 24 of 55 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 27 of 49 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3655 of 7277 times across 2283 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 3,048.77 to 3,130.43 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 3,093.00, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.43% (the 20th percentile) to +1.21% (the 80th); median -0.15%, typical size either way 0.97%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.32%, the best +9.50%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 1 session typically reached +1.16% in the hit's favour and -0.92% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.68% per candle, R² 0.93

Slope -0.68% per candle (down), R² 0.93 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -11.55% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.68% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next five sessions: 57% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 38% of the time (95 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 5 of 10 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 55 of 97 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 25 of 53 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 30 of 48 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3661 of 7223 times across 2278 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.

The range: 2,953.82 to 3,153.62 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 3,093.00, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -4.50% (the 20th percentile) to +1.96% (the 80th); median -1.31%, typical size either way 2.87%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -11.98%, the best +11.69%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 5 sessions typically reached +3.86% in the hit's favour and -2.34% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.68% per candle, R² 0.93

Slope -0.68% per candle (down), R² 0.93 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -11.55% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -3.38% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next ten sessions: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 31% of the time (77 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 7 of 10 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 59 of 96 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 25 of 53 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 32 of 48 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3759 of 7183 times across 2274 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 2,888.86 to 3,183.93 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 3,093.00, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -6.60% (the 20th percentile) to +2.94% (the 80th); median -2.84%, typical size either way 4.59%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -16.41%, the best +15.52%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 10 sessions typically reached +5.41% in the hit's favour and -4.10% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.68% per candle, R² 0.93

Slope -0.68% per candle (down), R² 0.93 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -11.55% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -6.75% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.