Leaning down over the next hour: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 29% of the time (18 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 1,717.34 to 1,727.18 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 1,725.80, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.49% (the 20th percentile) to +0.08% (the 80th); median -0.26%, typical size either way 0.30%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.19%, the best +0.42%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.06% per candle, R² 0.60

Slope -0.06% per candle (down), R² 0.60 (choppy), 9 candles from the window's high, -1.20% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.66% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next two hours: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 217 of 460 times across 100 names; Break of the session high / low (recent, down): went its way 77 of 140 times across 64 names; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 220 of 430 times across 56 names; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 227 of 391 times across 109 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 109 of 217 times across 81 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 1,712.86 to 1,723.38 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 1,725.80, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.75% (the 20th percentile) to -0.14% (the 80th); median -0.38%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.08%, the best -0.09%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.63% in the hit's favour and -0.56% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.07% per candle, R² 0.71

Slope -0.07% per candle (down), R² 0.71 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -1.87% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.54% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 60% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: N consecutive falling candles (live, down): went its way 24 of 57 times across 32 names; Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 151 of 279 times across 54 names; Opening range breakout (recent, down): went its way 99 of 183 times across 52 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 40%.

The range: 1,699.74 to 1,699.74 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 1,725.80, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.51% (the 20th percentile) to -1.51% (the 80th); median -1.51%, typical size either way 1.51%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.51%, the best -1.51%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.23% in the hit's favour and -1.35% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next session: 56% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 47% of the time (118 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 16 of 38 times on this name. Weighed together as 27 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 44%.

The range: 1,657.75 to 1,706.02 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 1,681.80, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.43% (the 20th percentile) to +1.44% (the 80th); median -0.07%, typical size either way 1.18%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -5.51%, the best +10.22%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.39% per candle, R² 0.63

Slope -0.39% per candle (down), R² 0.63 (choppy), 13 candles from the window's high, -6.53% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.39% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.