No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 65% of the time (40 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 64 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 19,226.47 to 19,442.24 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 19,265.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.20% (the 20th percentile) to +0.92% (the 80th); median +0.25%, typical size either way 0.37%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.66%, the best +1.43%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.15

Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.15 (choppy), 5 candles from the window's high, -0.41% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.11% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 88% of the time (15 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (recent, up): went its way 14 of 47 times across 31 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 10 of 24 times across 15 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 19,334.35 to 19,505.81 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 19,265.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from +0.36% (the 20th percentile) to +1.25% (the 80th); median +0.81%, typical size either way 0.81%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.34%, the best +2.11%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.12% per candle, R² 0.76

Slope +0.12% per candle (up), R² 0.76 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +2.01% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.93% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 55% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 55%.

The range: 19,532.78 to 19,532.78 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 19,265.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +1.39% (the 20th percentile) to +1.39% (the 80th); median +1.39%, typical size either way 1.39%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +1.39%, the best +1.39%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 54% of the time (134 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 18 of 29 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 52 of 111 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 34 of 61 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2093 of 4681 times across 1968 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 19,785.99 to 20,376.08 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 20,071.00, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.42% (the 20th percentile) to +1.52% (the 80th); median +0.13%, typical size either way 1.20%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -13.64%, the best +9.01%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.72% per candle, R² 0.39

Slope -0.72% per candle (down), R² 0.39 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -10.62% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.72% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 55% of the time (137 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 19 of 29 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 50 of 110 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 31 of 60 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2053 of 4657 times across 1962 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 19,456.83 to 21,034.41 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 20,071.00, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.06% (the 20th percentile) to +4.80% (the 80th); median +0.38%, typical size either way 3.20%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.05%, the best +16.24%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.72% per candle, R² 0.39

Slope -0.72% per candle (down), R² 0.39 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -10.62% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -3.59% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 57% of the time (142 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 16 of 29 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 60 of 108 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 32 of 60 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2080 of 4622 times across 1955 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.

The range: 19,336.40 to 21,451.88 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 20,071.00, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -3.66% (the 20th percentile) to +6.88% (the 80th); median +1.36%, typical size either way 4.44%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.01%, the best +24.13%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.72% per candle, R² 0.39

Slope -0.72% per candle (down), R² 0.39 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -10.62% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -7.18% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.