The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 73% · evidence 1 pattern (42 obs)
- Last close
- ₹792.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹790.02 – ₹799.05 -0.25% · +0.89%
- Typical move
- +0.42% median of 64 windows
- Trend line
- +0.032%/candle · R² 0.30 carried forward +0.38%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 73% of the time (47 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 214 of 535 times across 82 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.
The range: 790.02 to 799.05 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 792.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.25% (the 20th percentile) to +0.89% (the 80th); median +0.42%, typical size either way 0.45%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.42%, the best +2.18%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.03% per candle, R² 0.30
Slope +0.03% per candle (up), R² 0.30 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's low, +0.60% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.38% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.