No lean over the next hour: 45% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 53% of the time (31 of 58 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, down): went its way 728 of 1374 times across 164 names; Shooting star (live, down): went its way 569 of 1072 times across 171 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 1 of 6 times on this name; VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 829 of 2006 times across 204 names; Break of the session high / low (recent, up): went its way 80 of 212 times across 83 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 244 of 562 times across 109 names; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 620 of 1400 times across 206 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 760.40 to 763.52 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 762.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.21% (the 20th percentile) to +0.20% (the 80th); median +0.03%, typical size either way 0.14%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.64%, the best +0.80%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.01

Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.01 (choppy), 2 candles from the window's low, +0.86% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.06% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 59% of the time (10 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 408 of 978 times across 183 names; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 160 of 425 times across 59 names; Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 219 of 454 times across 112 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 761.39 to 765.20 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 762.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.08% (the 20th percentile) to +0.42% (the 80th); median +0.03%, typical size either way 0.19%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.33%, the best +0.58%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.31

Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.31 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's low, +0.93% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.18% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 119 of 295 times across 59 names; Shooting star (live, down): went its way 24 of 48 times across 27 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 32 of 110 times across 43 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 766.42 to 766.42 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 762.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.58% (the 20th percentile) to +0.58% (the 80th); median +0.58%, typical size either way 0.58%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.58%, the best +0.58%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 47% of the time (117 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Evening star (live, down): went its way 1 of 5 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 50 of 102 times on this name. Weighed together as 47 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 706.62 to 727.77 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 719.35, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.77% (the 20th percentile) to +1.17% (the 80th); median -0.16%, typical size either way 1.10%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -10.29%, the best +7.68%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.30% per candle, R² 0.39

Slope -0.30% per candle (down), R² 0.39 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -10.08% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.30% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 42% of the time (105 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Evening star (live, down): went its way 5 of 5 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 47 of 100 times on this name. Weighed together as 47 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 671.94 to 750.14 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 719.35, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -6.59% (the 20th percentile) to +4.28% (the 80th); median -1.20%, typical size either way 3.66%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -21.54%, the best +23.25%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.30% per candle, R² 0.39

Slope -0.30% per candle (down), R² 0.39 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -10.08% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -2.99% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.