No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 51% of the time (32 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 323 of 655 times across 152 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 745.18 to 749.29 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 746.30, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.15% (the 20th percentile) to +0.40% (the 80th); median +0.01%, typical size either way 0.23%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.40%, the best +0.97%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.00% per candle, R² 0.00

Slope -0.00% per candle (down), R² 0.00 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's high, -0.05% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.01% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 119 of 295 times across 59 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 18 of 28 times across 20 names. Weighed together as 62 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.

The range: 751.67 to 751.67 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 746.30, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.72% (the 20th percentile) to +0.72% (the 80th); median +0.72%, typical size either way 0.72%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.72%, the best +0.72%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 54 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 44% of the time (111 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 54 of 128 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 32 of 57 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 12 of 33 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 5 of 9 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 727.21 to 756.59 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 741.75, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.96% (the 20th percentile) to +2.00% (the 80th); median -0.19%, typical size either way 1.48%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -19.43%, the best +13.09%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.72

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.72 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -6.80% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.43% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 42% of the time (104 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 62 of 128 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 29 of 56 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 12 of 32 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 5 of 9 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 709.93 to 774.09 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 741.75, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -4.29% (the 20th percentile) to +4.36% (the 80th); median -0.95%, typical size either way 3.47%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -25.17%, the best +39.75%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.72

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.72 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -6.80% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -2.15% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 40% of the time (100 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 57 of 126 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 24 of 56 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 11 of 32 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 2 of 9 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 688.64 to 781.43 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 741.75, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -7.16% (the 20th percentile) to +5.35% (the 80th); median -2.40%, typical size either way 5.34%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -21.43%, the best +49.15%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.72

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.72 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -6.80% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -4.30% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.