No lean over the next hour: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 67% of the time (42 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 641 of 1199 times across 192 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 64 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 4,290.97 to 4,328.38 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 4,300.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.21% (the 20th percentile) to +0.66% (the 80th); median +0.10%, typical size either way 0.30%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.87%, the best +1.69%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.11

Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.11 (choppy), 9 candles from the window's low, +0.72% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.16% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 71% of the time (12 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 305 of 548 times across 107 names; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 131 of 307 times across 65 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 51 of 129 times across 65 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 10 of 24 times across 15 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 4,290.97 to 4,337.84 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 4,300.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.21% (the 20th percentile) to +0.88% (the 80th); median +0.25%, typical size either way 0.37%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.37%, the best +1.00%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.04% per candle, R² 0.46

Slope +0.04% per candle (up), R² 0.46 (choppy), 12 candles from the window's low, +1.18% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.36% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names; Marubozu (recent, up): went its way 29 of 73 times across 36 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 3 of 16 times across 11 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times across 5 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 4,351.60 to 4,351.60 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 4,300.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +1.20% (the 20th percentile) to +1.20% (the 80th); median +1.20%, typical size either way 1.20%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +1.20%, the best +1.20%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 58% of the time (144 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 61 of 105 times on this name; Gap at the open (live, down): went its way 45 of 103 times on this name; Hammer (live, up): went its way 7 of 9 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 17 of 32 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3659 of 7319 times across 2290 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 4,165.60 to 4,332.80 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 4,232.90, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.59% (the 20th percentile) to +2.36% (the 80th); median +0.32%, typical size either way 1.60%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.25%, the best +14.81%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.62% per candle, R² 0.40

Slope +0.62% per candle (up), R² 0.40 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's low, +9.33% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print +0.62% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 62% of the time (156 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 60 of 105 times on this name; Gap at the open (live, down): went its way 52 of 100 times on this name; Hammer (live, up): went its way 3 of 9 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 16 of 31 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3657 of 7216 times across 2279 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 4,131.73 to 4,534.71 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 4,232.90, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -2.39% (the 20th percentile) to +7.13% (the 80th); median +1.52%, typical size either way 3.21%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -11.12%, the best +21.62%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.62% per candle, R² 0.40

Slope +0.62% per candle (up), R² 0.40 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's low, +9.33% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print +3.12% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 71% of the time (178 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 59 of 104 times on this name; Gap at the open (live, down): went its way 54 of 99 times on this name; Hammer (live, up): went its way 5 of 9 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 15 of 31 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3755 of 7180 times across 2274 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 4,159.67 to 4,733.65 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 4,232.90, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -1.73% (the 20th percentile) to +11.83% (the 80th); median +3.67%, typical size either way 5.37%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -14.66%, the best +31.50%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.62% per candle, R² 0.40

Slope +0.62% per candle (up), R² 0.40 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's low, +9.33% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print +6.25% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.