The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 39% · evidence 3 patterns (70 obs)
- Last close
- ₹1,604.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹1,597.90 – ₹1,608.01 -0.38% · +0.25%
- Typical move
- -0.07% median of 64 windows
- Trend line
- -0.018%/candle · R² 0.33 carried forward -0.22%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 39% of the time (25 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 323 of 655 times across 152 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 70 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 1,597.90 to 1,608.01 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 1,604.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.38% (the 20th percentile) to +0.25% (the 80th); median -0.07%, typical size either way 0.29%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.14%, the best +0.94%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.02% per candle, R² 0.33
Slope -0.02% per candle (down), R² 0.33 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's high, -0.69% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.22% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.