The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 52% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹468.25 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹466.14 – ₹470.78 -0.45% · +0.54%
- Typical move
- +0.05% median of 64 windows
- Trend line
- -0.007%/candle · R² 0.11 carried forward -0.08%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 52% of the time (33 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 3 of 9 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.
The range: 466.14 to 470.78 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 468.25, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.45% (the 20th percentile) to +0.54% (the 80th); median +0.05%, typical size either way 0.42%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.06%, the best +1.34%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.11
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.11 (choppy), 9 candles from the window's high, -0.45% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.08% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.