The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 37% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹647.30 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹644.90 – ₹648.98 -0.37% · +0.26%
- Typical move
- -0.10% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- -0.012%/candle · R² 0.44 carried forward -0.14%
- Record
- 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
Leaning down over the next hour: 58% chance the close is lower
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 37% of the time (23 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 620 of 1400 times across 206 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 42%.
The range: 644.90 to 648.98 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 647.30, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.37% (the 20th percentile) to +0.26% (the 80th); median -0.10%, typical size either way 0.25%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.82%, the best +1.03%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.44
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.44 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -0.15% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.14% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 65 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.