The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 56% · evidence 6 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹361.25 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹358.97 – ₹366.16 -0.63% · +1.36%
- Typical move
- +0.21% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- -0.024%/candle · R² 0.28 carried forward -0.29%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 56% of the time (35 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 2 of 6 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 323 of 639 times across 78 names; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (recent, down): went its way 146 of 291 times across 64 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (recent, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 285 of 531 times across 136 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 358.97 to 366.16 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 361.25, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.63% (the 20th percentile) to +1.36% (the 80th); median +0.21%, typical size either way 0.65%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.53%, the best +2.27%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.02% per candle, R² 0.28
Slope -0.02% per candle (down), R² 0.28 (choppy), 6 candles from the window's high, -1.04% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.29% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.