No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 52% of the time (72 of 139 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 304 of 658 times across 94 names; Break of the session high / low (recent, down): went its way 181 of 364 times across 112 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 281 of 515 times across 133 names; Trend line: slope, length, strength (building, down): went its way 97 of 179 times across 62 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 135.95 to 137.53 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 136.47, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.38% (the 20th percentile) to +0.78% (the 80th); median +0.02%, typical size either way 0.47%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.27%, the best +1.71%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.08% per candle, R² 0.87

Slope -0.08% per candle (down), R² 0.87 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -1.59% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.94% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 56% of the time (24 of 43 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 216 of 452 times across 98 names; Break of the session high / low (live, down): went its way 77 of 138 times across 63 names; Volume spike (live, down): went its way 212 of 417 times across 56 names; Marubozu (live, down): went its way 297 of 531 times across 106 names; VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 4 of 10 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 297 of 571 times across 129 names; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 220 of 379 times across 106 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 135.65 to 137.86 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 136.47, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.60% (the 20th percentile) to +1.02% (the 80th); median +0.07%, typical size either way 0.66%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.06%, the best +2.71%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.05% per candle, R² 0.46

Slope -0.05% per candle (down), R² 0.46 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -1.71% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.39% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 50% of the time (4 of 8 windows). The evidence in progress: Opening range breakout (live, down): went its way 95 of 176 times across 50 names; Marubozu (live, down): went its way 49 of 99 times across 40 names; VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 159 of 288 times across 54 names; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 42 of 98 times across 41 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 134.65 to 137.41 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 136.47, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.33% (the 20th percentile) to +0.69% (the 80th); median -0.16%, typical size either way 0.86%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.39%, the best +3.47%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 55% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 43% of the time (107 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 58 of 101 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 54 of 92 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (recent, down): went its way 4 of 9 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 55%.

The range: 136.51 to 140.67 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 138.74, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.61% (the 20th percentile) to +1.39% (the 80th); median -0.42%, typical size either way 1.22%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -20.00%, the best +7.37%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 1.67% per candle, R² 0.61

Slope -1.67% per candle (down), R² 0.61 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -23.65% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -1.67% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 30% of the time (76 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 53 of 99 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 48 of 91 times on this name; Trend line: slope, length, strength (recent, down): went its way 7 of 9 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 126.17 to 142.22 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 138.74, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -9.06% (the 20th percentile) to +2.51% (the 80th); median -3.10%, typical size either way 5.01%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -28.78%, the best +29.41%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 1.67% per candle, R² 0.61

Slope -1.67% per candle (down), R² 0.61 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -23.65% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -16.73% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.