The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 54% · evidence 2 patterns (58 obs)
- Last close
- ₹2,410.00 as of Tue 22 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹2,402.77 – ₹2,421.57 -0.30% · +0.48%
- Typical move
- +0.08% median of 134 windows
- Trend line
- +0.006%/candle · R² 0.02 carried forward +0.07%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
Leaning down over the next hour: 57% chance the close is lower
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 54% of the time (72 of 134 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 4 of 16 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 737 of 1618 times across 211 names. Weighed together as 58 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.
The range: 2,402.77 to 2,421.57 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 2,410.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.30% (the 20th percentile) to +0.48% (the 80th); median +0.08%, typical size either way 0.30%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.07%, the best +4.06%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.02
Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.02 (choppy), 2 candles from the window's low, +1.01% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.07% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.