The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 65% · evidence 2 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹4,034.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹4,031.98 – ₹4,038.84 -0.05% · +0.12%
- Typical move
- +0.04% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.007%/candle · R² 0.30 carried forward +0.08%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 65% of the time (41 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Bearish engulfing (live, down): went its way 641 of 1199 times across 192 names; Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.
The range: 4,031.98 to 4,038.84 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 4,034.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.05% (the 20th percentile) to +0.12% (the 80th); median +0.04%, typical size either way 0.07%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.35%, the best +0.35%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.30
Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.30 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's low, +0.14% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.08% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.