The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 47% · evidence 1 pattern (60 obs)
- Last close
- ₹287.50 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹286.72 – ₹287.79 -0.27% · +0.10%
- Typical move
- -0.03% median of 62 windows
- Trend line
- +0.008%/candle · R² 0.26 carried forward +0.10%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 47% of the time (29 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, down): went its way 957 of 1875 times across 210 names. Weighed together as 60 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.
The range: 286.72 to 287.79 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 287.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.27% (the 20th percentile) to +0.10% (the 80th); median -0.03%, typical size either way 0.14%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.45%, the best +0.49%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.26
Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.26 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's low, +0.10% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.10% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.