The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 36% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹3,522.20 as of Mon 5 Oct, 15:50 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹3,500.71 – ₹3,533.12 -0.61% · +0.31%
- Typical move
- -0.18% median of 2,257 windows
- Trend line
- -0.021%/candle · R² 0.23 carried forward -0.25%
- Record
- 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 36% of the time (804 of 2257 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 111 of 235 times on this name; Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 58 of 123 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 4 of 8 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.
The range: 3,500.71 to 3,533.12 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 3,522.20, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.61% (the 20th percentile) to +0.31% (the 80th); median -0.18%, typical size either way 0.41%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.85%, the best +2.41%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.02% per candle, R² 0.23
Slope -0.02% per candle (down), R² 0.23 (choppy), 12 candles from the window's high, -0.64% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.25% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 65 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.