No lean over the next hour: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 68% of the time (43 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Bollinger squeeze, then a break (live, down): went its way 146 of 291 times across 64 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names; Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 492 of 1083 times across 204 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 285 of 531 times across 136 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 329.29 to 331.76 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 329.65, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.11% (the 20th percentile) to +0.64% (the 80th); median +0.17%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.14%, the best +1.37%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.00% per candle, R² 0.04

Slope -0.00% per candle (down), R² 0.05 (choppy), 8 candles from the window's high, -0.45% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.05% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 82% of the time (14 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, down): went its way 307 of 592 times across 130 names; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 220 of 430 times across 56 names; Trend line: slope, length, strength (recent, up): went its way 14 of 47 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 330.54 to 334.30 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 329.65, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from +0.27% (the 20th percentile) to +1.41% (the 80th); median +0.59%, typical size either way 0.85%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.85%, the best +1.63%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.10% per candle, R² 0.77

Slope +0.10% per candle (up), R² 0.77 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's low, +1.65% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.82% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: N consecutive rising candles (recent, up): went its way 3 of 16 times across 11 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names. Weighed together as 53 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 334.20 to 334.20 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 329.65, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +1.38% (the 20th percentile) to +1.38% (the 80th); median +1.38%, typical size either way 1.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +1.38%, the best +1.38%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 46% of the time (116 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 57 of 105 times on this name; Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 7 of 24 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, down): went its way 44 of 85 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 320.88 to 330.74 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 326.50, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.72% (the 20th percentile) to +1.30% (the 80th); median -0.16%, typical size either way 1.26%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.39%, the best +10.50%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.07% per candle, R² 0.03

Slope -0.07% per candle (down), R² 0.03 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -5.39% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.07% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 39% of the time (98 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 48 of 105 times on this name; Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 9 of 23 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, down): went its way 38 of 84 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 315.01 to 333.75 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 326.50, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.52% (the 20th percentile) to +2.22% (the 80th); median -0.89%, typical size either way 2.59%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -13.39%, the best +21.79%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.07% per candle, R² 0.03

Slope -0.07% per candle (down), R² 0.03 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -5.39% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -0.35% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.