The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 56% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹12,153.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹12,135.99 – ₹12,172.44 -0.14% · +0.16%
- Typical move
- +0.04% median of 61 windows
- Trend line
- -0.011%/candle · R² 0.53 carried forward -0.13%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 56% of the time (34 of 61 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, down): went its way 957 of 1875 times across 210 names; N consecutive falling candles (live, down): went its way 285 of 531 times across 136 names; Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (recent, down): went its way 146 of 291 times across 64 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 12,135.99 to 12,172.44 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 12,153.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.14% (the 20th percentile) to +0.16% (the 80th); median +0.04%, typical size either way 0.12%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.46%, the best +0.40%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.53
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.53 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -0.35% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.13% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.