The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 38% · evidence 3 patterns (40 obs)
- Last close
- ₹406.75 as of Mon 5 Oct, 15:50 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹403.09 – ₹408.78 -0.90% · +0.50%
- Typical move
- -0.25% median of 365 windows
- Trend line
- -0.092%/candle · R² 0.94 carried forward -1.10%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
Leaning down over the next hour: 57% chance the close is lower
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 38% of the time (137 of 365 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 16 of 28 times on this name; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 11 of 22 times on this name. Weighed together as 40 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.
The range: 403.09 to 408.78 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 406.75, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.90% (the 20th percentile) to +0.50% (the 80th); median -0.25%, typical size either way 0.56%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.47%, the best +2.97%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
What the patterns leaning this way typically reached
After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 12 candles typically reached +0.77% in the hit's favour and -0.57% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.
The trend line: falling 0.09% per candle, R² 0.94
Slope -0.09% per candle (down), R² 0.94 (straight), 19 candles from the window's high, -1.54% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -1.10% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.