The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 46% · evidence 2 patterns (66 obs)
- Last close
- ₹2,066.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹2,053.81 – ₹2,073.23 -0.59% · +0.35%
- Typical move
- -0.06% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- -0.042%/candle · R² 0.44 carried forward -0.50%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 46% of the time (29 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 66 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 2,053.81 to 2,073.23 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 2,066.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.59% (the 20th percentile) to +0.35% (the 80th); median -0.06%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.12%, the best +0.89%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.04% per candle, R² 0.43
Slope -0.04% per candle (down), R² 0.43 (choppy), 15 candles from the window's high, -0.97% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.50% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.