The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 50% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹6,295.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹6,269.82 – ₹6,318.29 -0.40% · +0.37%
- Typical move
- +0.00% median of 62 windows
- Trend line
- +0.020%/candle · R² 0.24 carried forward +0.24%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
Leaning down over the next hour: 57% chance the close is lower
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 50% of the time (31 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 1 of 5 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 721 of 1669 times across 201 names; Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 492 of 1083 times across 204 names; Break of the session high / low (recent, up): went its way 80 of 212 times across 83 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.
The range: 6,269.82 to 6,318.29 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 6,295.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.40% (the 20th percentile) to +0.37% (the 80th); median -0.00%, typical size either way 0.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.86%, the best +0.88%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.24
Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.24 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's low, +0.87% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.24% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.