The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 56% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹1,113.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹1,107.66 – ₹1,125.13 -0.48% · +1.09%
- Typical move
- +0.14% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.004%/candle · R² 0.01 carried forward +0.05%
- Record
- 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 56% of the time (35 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Bearish engulfing (live, down): went its way 641 of 1199 times across 192 names; Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 492 of 1083 times across 204 names; Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.
The range: 1,107.66 to 1,125.13 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 1,113.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.48% (the 20th percentile) to +1.09% (the 80th); median +0.14%, typical size either way 0.56%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.07%, the best +3.06%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.00% per candle, R² 0.01
Slope +0.00% per candle (up), R² 0.01 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's low, +0.82% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.05% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 61 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.