No lean over the next hour: 45% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 48% of the time (31 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 626.22 to 633.40 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.60% (the 20th percentile) to +0.54% (the 80th); median -0.03%, typical size either way 0.45%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.02%, the best +2.26%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.10

Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.10 (choppy), 9 candles from the window's high, -0.16% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.10% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 67% of the time (12 of 18 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 131 of 307 times across 65 names; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 182 of 310 times across 98 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 629.12 to 636.62 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.14% (the 20th percentile) to +1.05% (the 80th); median +0.31%, typical size either way 0.79%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.39%, the best +1.41%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.52

Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.52 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +1.63% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.59% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 45 of 100 leaned the right way (45%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 45 saw the close go the way they leaned; 57 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 44 of 101 times across 32 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 634.03 to 634.03 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.64% (the 20th percentile) to +0.64% (the 80th); median +0.64%, typical size either way 0.64%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.64%, the best +0.64%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 54 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 46% of the time (114 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 57 of 119 times on this name. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 631.82 to 655.14 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 644.25, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.93% (the 20th percentile) to +1.69% (the 80th); median -0.16%, typical size either way 1.45%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -5.03%, the best +8.45%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.21% per candle, R² 0.21

Slope -0.21% per candle (down), R² 0.21 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -4.61% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.21% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 47% of the time (117 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 50 of 115 times on this name. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 608.30 to 678.59 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 644.25, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -5.58% (the 20th percentile) to +5.33% (the 80th); median -0.65%, typical size either way 4.41%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -16.31%, the best +22.83%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.21% per candle, R² 0.21

Slope -0.21% per candle (down), R² 0.21 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -4.61% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -2.09% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.