The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 50% · evidence 7 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹753.50 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹750.56 – ₹757.95 -0.39% · +0.59%
- Typical move
- +0.01% median of 64 windows
- Trend line
- +0.088%/candle · R² 0.83 carried forward +1.06%
- Record
- 58 of 100 leaned right (58%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 50% of the time (32 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, up): went its way 65 of 151 times across 67 names; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 728 of 1374 times across 164 names; Marubozu (recent, up): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 641 of 1199 times across 192 names; Morning star (recent, up): went its way 292 of 676 times across 158 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.
The range: 750.56 to 757.95 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 753.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.39% (the 20th percentile) to +0.59% (the 80th); median +0.01%, typical size either way 0.36%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.06%, the best +1.39%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.09% per candle, R² 0.83
Slope +0.09% per candle (up), R² 0.83 (straight), 15 candles from the window's low, +1.46% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +1.06% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.
How these outlooks have fared: 58 of 100 leaned the right way (58%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 58 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.