Leaning down over the next hour: 63% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 33% of the time (21 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 4 of 8 times on this name. Weighed together as 6 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 37%.

The range: 160.65 to 161.71 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 161.60, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.59% (the 20th percentile) to +0.07% (the 80th); median -0.11%, typical size either way 0.19%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.33%, the best +0.30%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.00% per candle, R² 0.01

Slope -0.00% per candle (down), R² 0.00 (choppy), 1 candles from the window's high, +0.00% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.02% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 65 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next two hours: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 24% of the time (4 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 160 of 425 times across 59 names; Morning star (live, up): went its way 81 of 182 times across 72 names; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 227 of 391 times across 109 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 175 of 387 times across 95 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 160.19 to 161.62 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 161.60, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.87% (the 20th percentile) to +0.01% (the 80th); median -0.14%, typical size either way 0.18%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.71%, the best +0.36%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.61% in the hit's favour and -0.40% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.06

Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.06 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -0.04% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.05% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 50 of 100 leaned the right way (50%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 50 saw the close go the way they leaned; 60 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 65% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 43 of 100 times across 41 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 92 of 165 times across 52 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 35%.

The range: 160.68 to 160.68 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 161.60, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -0.57% (the 20th percentile) to -0.57% (the 80th); median -0.57%, typical size either way 0.57%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.57%, the best -0.57%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.22% in the hit's favour and -0.91% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 54 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next five sessions: 55% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 44% of the time (109 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 58 of 130 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 5 of 9 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name. Weighed together as 48 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 150.39 to 165.97 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 160.13, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -6.08% (the 20th percentile) to +3.65% (the 80th); median -1.05%, typical size either way 3.99%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -19.42%, the best +24.95%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 5 sessions typically reached +5.76% in the hit's favour and -5.05% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.20% per candle, R² 0.28

Slope -0.20% per candle (down), R² 0.28 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -5.78% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -1.00% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.