The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 38% · evidence 2 patterns (21 obs)
- Last close
- ₹345.50 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹344.36 – ₹346.92 -0.33% · +0.41%
- Typical move
- -0.07% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.054%/candle · R² 0.50 carried forward +0.65%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 38% of the time (24 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 4 of 8 times on this name; Marubozu (recent, up): went its way 13 of 19 times on this name. Weighed together as 21 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 344.36 to 346.92 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 345.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.33% (the 20th percentile) to +0.41% (the 80th); median -0.07%, typical size either way 0.28%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.28%, the best +1.66%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.05% per candle, R² 0.49
Slope +0.05% per candle (up), R² 0.49 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's low, +1.32% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.65% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.