Leaning down over the next two hours: 55% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 24% of the time (4 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: RSI into overbought / oversold (live, up): went its way 113 of 227 times across 53 names; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 109 of 217 times across 81 names; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 220 of 430 times across 56 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 25 of 51 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 44%.

The range: 432.12 to 435.51 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 435.25, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.72% (the 20th percentile) to +0.06% (the 80th); median -0.47%, typical size either way 0.50%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.15%, the best +0.66%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.60% in the hit's favour and -0.89% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.03% per candle, R² 0.28

Slope -0.03% per candle (down), R² 0.28 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's high, -1.23% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.27% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 68% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Morning star (recent, up): went its way 21 of 45 times across 29 names; Marubozu (recent, up): went its way 29 of 73 times across 36 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 32%.

The range: 430.81 to 430.81 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 435.25, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.02% (the 20th percentile) to -1.02% (the 80th); median -1.02%, typical size either way 1.02%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.02%, the best -1.02%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.39% in the hit's favour and -1.14% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 52 of 100 leaned the right way (52%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 52 saw the close go the way they leaned; 57 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.