The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 62% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹241.90 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹241.42 – ₹243.45 -0.20% · +0.64%
- Typical move
- +0.17% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.009%/candle · R² 0.24 carried forward +0.11%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 62% of the time (39 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 4 of 5 times on this name; Shooting star (live, down): went its way 569 of 1072 times across 171 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.
The range: 241.42 to 243.45 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 241.90, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.20% (the 20th percentile) to +0.64% (the 80th); median +0.17%, typical size either way 0.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.97%, the best +2.88%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.24
Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.24 (choppy), 5 candles from the window's low, +0.39% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.11% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.