The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 47% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹980.00 as of Tue 6 Oct, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹976.08 – ₹984.70 -0.40% · +0.48%
- Typical move
- -0.05% median of 584 windows
- Trend line
- +0.071%/candle · R² 0.81 carried forward +0.85%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 47% of the time (273 of 584 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, down): went its way 23 of 54 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (live, down): went its way 6 of 11 times on this name; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 14 of 23 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 976.08 to 984.70 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 980.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.40% (the 20th percentile) to +0.48% (the 80th); median -0.05%, typical size either way 0.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.90%, the best +2.24%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.81
Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.81 (straight), 17 candles from the window's low, +1.05% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.85% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.