The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 38% · evidence 2 patterns (66 obs)
- Last close
- ₹169.81 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹169.25 – ₹170.08 -0.33% · +0.16%
- Typical move
- -0.12% median of 64 windows
- Trend line
- -0.022%/candle · R² 0.36 carried forward -0.26%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 38% of the time (24 of 64 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 713 of 1344 times across 164 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 30 of 71 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 66 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.
The range: 169.25 to 170.08 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 169.81, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.33% (the 20th percentile) to +0.16% (the 80th); median -0.12%, typical size either way 0.23%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.76%, the best +0.36%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.02% per candle, R² 0.36
Slope -0.02% per candle (down), R² 0.36 (choppy), 6 candles from the window's high, -0.77% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.26% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.