No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 63% of the time (40 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 620 of 1400 times across 206 names; Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 223 of 548 times across 83 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 1,793.64 to 1,811.27 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 1,798.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.27% (the 20th percentile) to +0.71% (the 80th); median +0.20%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.61%, the best +1.88%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.12% per candle, R² 0.78

Slope +0.12% per candle (up), R² 0.78 (choppy), 10 candles from the window's low, +2.00% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +1.50% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 82% of the time (14 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 131 of 307 times across 65 names; Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 169 of 416 times across 96 names; VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 408 of 978 times across 183 names; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, down): went its way 85 of 119 times across 48 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 188 of 470 times across 119 names; Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 160 of 425 times across 59 names; Three white soldiers (recent, up): went its way 15 of 26 times across 17 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 10 of 24 times across 15 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 1,799.94 to 1,815.77 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 1,798.50, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from +0.08% (the 20th percentile) to +0.96% (the 80th); median +0.31%, typical size either way 0.44%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.49%, the best +1.68%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.42

Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.42 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's low, +1.95% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.56% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 60 of 100 leaned the right way (60%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 60 saw the close go the way they leaned; 56 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 18 of 28 times across 20 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times across 5 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 1,840.41 to 1,840.41 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 1,798.50, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +2.33% (the 20th percentile) to +2.33% (the 80th); median +2.33%, typical size either way 2.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +2.33%, the best +2.33%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 54 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 46% of the time (116 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 60 of 126 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 54 of 110 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 2 of 10 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 1,695.95 to 1,753.28 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 1,721.60, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.49% (the 20th percentile) to +1.84% (the 80th); median -0.18%, typical size either way 1.34%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -7.64%, the best +10.03%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.34% per candle, R² 0.30

Slope -0.34% per candle (down), R² 0.30 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -9.31% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.34% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 49% of the time (122 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 58 of 124 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 47 of 110 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 3 of 9 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 1,663.24 to 1,808.71 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 1,721.60, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.39% (the 20th percentile) to +5.06% (the 80th); median -0.04%, typical size either way 3.08%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -15.73%, the best +27.04%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.34% per candle, R² 0.30

Slope -0.34% per candle (down), R² 0.30 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -9.31% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -1.70% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 51% of the time (128 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 61 of 124 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 52 of 109 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 3 of 9 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 1,649.29 to 1,841.08 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 1,721.60, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -4.20% (the 20th percentile) to +6.94% (the 80th); median +0.16%, typical size either way 3.90%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.37%, the best +31.21%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.34% per candle, R² 0.30

Slope -0.34% per candle (down), R² 0.30 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -9.31% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -3.39% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.