The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 79% · evidence 6 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹285.75 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹285.75 – ₹289.32 +0.00% · +1.25%
- Typical move
- +0.45% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.034%/candle · R² 0.42 carried forward +0.41%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 79% of the time (50 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 492 of 1083 times across 204 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 244 of 562 times across 109 names; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (recent, up): went its way 111 of 241 times across 57 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.
The range: 285.75 to 289.32 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 285.75, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from +0.00% (the 20th percentile) to +1.25% (the 80th); median +0.45%, typical size either way 0.58%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.89%, the best +2.99%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.03% per candle, R² 0.41
Slope +0.03% per candle (up), R² 0.41 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's low, +0.85% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.41% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.