No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 63% of the time (40 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (live, up): went its way 5 of 12 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name; Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 474 of 1043 times across 202 names; Volume spike (recent, up): went its way 648 of 1501 times across 174 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 118 of 287 times across 112 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 2,365.62 to 2,410.84 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 2,379.90, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.60% (the 20th percentile) to +1.30% (the 80th); median +0.40%, typical size either way 0.83%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.36%, the best +3.49%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.03% per candle, R² 0.18

Slope +0.03% per candle (up), R² 0.18 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's low, +1.57% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.35% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 82% of the time (14 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 179 of 449 times across 116 names; Morning star (recent, up): went its way 78 of 178 times across 72 names; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 125 of 296 times across 64 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 48 of 123 times across 62 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 8 of 22 times across 13 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 2,389.18 to 2,433.69 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 2,379.90, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from +0.39% (the 20th percentile) to +2.26% (the 80th); median +1.18%, typical size either way 1.45%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.80%, the best +2.88%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.12% per candle, R² 0.43

Slope +0.12% per candle (up), R² 0.43 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's low, +3.17% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.94% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: N consecutive rising candles (live, up): went its way 3 of 16 times across 11 names; Higher highs and higher lows (live, up): went its way 41 of 96 times across 31 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 65 of 209 times across 56 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 30 of 107 times across 42 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times across 5 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 2,437.26 to 2,437.26 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 2,379.90, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +2.41% (the 20th percentile) to +2.41% (the 80th); median +2.41%, typical size either way 2.41%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +2.41%, the best +2.41%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 49% of the time (123 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 62 of 124 times on this name; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 15 of 29 times on this name; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (live, up): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 29 of 48 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2089 of 4681 times across 1968 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 2,331.01 to 2,414.49 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 2,371.80, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.72% (the 20th percentile) to +1.80% (the 80th); median -0.04%, typical size either way 1.47%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -11.73%, the best +20.00%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.08% per candle, R² 0.10

Slope +0.08% per candle (up), R² 0.10 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's low, +6.76% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print +0.08% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 53% of the time (132 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 55 of 124 times on this name; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 16 of 29 times on this name; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (live, up): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 27 of 46 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2049 of 4655 times across 1960 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.

The range: 2,292.34 to 2,458.37 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 2,371.80, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.35% (the 20th percentile) to +3.65% (the 80th); median +0.32%, typical size either way 2.66%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.61%, the best +33.61%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.08% per candle, R² 0.10

Slope +0.08% per candle (up), R² 0.10 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's low, +6.76% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print +0.40% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 50% of the time (125 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, up): went its way 59 of 122 times on this name; Volume spike (live, up): went its way 19 of 29 times on this name; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (live, up): went its way 3 of 5 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 22 of 46 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 2078 of 4622 times across 1955 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 2,256.77 to 2,529.76 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 2,371.80, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -4.85% (the 20th percentile) to +6.66% (the 80th); median +0.07%, typical size either way 4.11%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -25.86%, the best +24.75%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.08% per candle, R² 0.10

Slope +0.08% per candle (up), R² 0.10 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's low, +6.76% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print +0.80% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.