The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 39% · evidence 3 patterns (35 obs)
- Last close
- ₹9,410.50 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹9,396.38 – ₹9,427.44 -0.15% · +0.18%
- Typical move
- -0.02% median of 62 windows
- Trend line
- +0.019%/candle · R² 0.32 carried forward +0.23%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 39% of the time (24 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, down): went its way 3 of 8 times on this name; Inside bar, then a breakout (live, down): went its way 0 of 5 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 35 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 9,396.38 to 9,427.44 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 9,410.50, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.15% (the 20th percentile) to +0.18% (the 80th); median -0.02%, typical size either way 0.12%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.55%, the best +0.54%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.32
Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.32 (choppy), 10 candles from the window's low, +0.25% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.23% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.