The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 59% · evidence 2 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹142.90 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹142.37 – ₹143.89 -0.37% · +0.69%
- Typical move
- +0.16% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.023%/candle · R² 0.40 carried forward +0.28%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 59% of the time (37 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: N consecutive falling candles (live, down): went its way 328 of 620 times across 141 names; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 662 of 1259 times across 175 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 142.37 to 143.89 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 142.90, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.37% (the 20th percentile) to +0.69% (the 80th); median +0.16%, typical size either way 0.47%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.55%, the best +1.44%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.40
Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.40 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's low, +0.42% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.28% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.