The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 55% · evidence 4 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹85.43 as of Mon 5 Oct, 15:55 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹84.25 – ₹87.24 -1.38% · +2.12%
- Typical move
- +0.21% median of 755 windows
- Trend line
- +0.171%/candle · R² 0.49 carried forward +2.05%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 55% of the time (415 of 755 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 46 of 73 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 32 of 60 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 9 of 17 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 7 of 14 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.
The range: 84.25 to 87.24 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 85.43, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -1.38% (the 20th percentile) to +2.12% (the 80th); median +0.21%, typical size either way 1.36%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -5.72%, the best +9.09%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.17% per candle, R² 0.49
Slope +0.17% per candle (up), R² 0.49 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's low, +4.03% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +2.05% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.