The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 65% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹435.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:28 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹434.13 – ₹438.61 -0.20% · +0.83%
- Typical move
- +0.25% median of 62 windows
- Trend line
- +0.003%/candle · R² 0.01 carried forward +0.04%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 65% of the time (40 of 62 windows). The evidence in progress: Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 569 of 1072 times across 171 names; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 641 of 1199 times across 192 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 24 of 55 times across 30 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.
The range: 434.13 to 438.61 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 435.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.20% (the 20th percentile) to +0.83% (the 80th); median +0.25%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.74%, the best +1.86%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.00% per candle, R² 0.01
Slope +0.00% per candle (up), R² 0.01 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +0.24% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.04% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.